Tag Archives: Markets
Markets
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – March 19th, 2021
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – March 19th, 2021
Twitter: Rick Rieder @RickRieder We?re in the midst of witnessing #BondMarketHistory, as the peak to trough drawdown for the Barclays Long Treasury Index now exceeds -20% (not including today?s move), its worst #drawdown going back 40 years and meeting what many... Read More
Markets
Funding Market Stress & No SLR Relief
Funding Market Stress & No SLR Relief
Posted By Jim Bianco
Funding markets are under stress and negative rates are a possibility. On the other end of the curve, higher rates continue.... Read More
Markets
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – March 18th, 2021
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – March 18th, 2021
Twitter: Robin Brooks @RobinBrooksIIF The share of US debt held by foreigners has fallen to its lowest level since 2002 (lhs, blue). That’s not due to foreign selling, but rather that foreigners aren’t buying (rhs, pink), even as US debt... Read More
Markets
Does Yield Curve Control Work?
Does Yield Curve Control Work?
Posted By Jim Bianco
Given the struggles in Australia and Japan with yield curve control, should U.S. bond short sellers be afraid of the Fed?... Read More
Markets
The Issues for Jay Powell Today
The Issues for Jay Powell Today
Posted By Jim Bianco
Jay Powell has two issues to address today. Convince the market has benign inflation forecast is correct and what to do about plunging short rates. Both are going to be difficult.... Read More
Markets
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – March 16th, 2021
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – March 16th, 2021
Ben Breitholtz: Consumer spending by low-middle income households saw a large jump in vacation-related services into the end of February. Might help explain some of the out-performance across airlines as of late. The JETS ETF is up over 28% YTD.... Read More
Markets
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – March 15th, 2021
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – March 15th, 2021
Jim Bianco: CoT out for March 9. 2-year large speculators are big-time short. But the 10-year remains neutral (second panel) with asset managers (bottom panel) not at a rare short and hedge funds (third panel) moving aggressively long. To properly... Read More
Markets
A Third COVID Wave in Europe?
A Third COVID Wave in Europe?
Posted By Jim Bianco
Europe has been slow to roll out vaccines and COVID infection counts have been turning higher. The US, UK, and Israel have been more aggressive with vaccine distribution and their infection counts continue to fall.... Read More
Markets
Detailing the Banking Industry’s Profitability
Detailing the Banking Industry’s Profitability
Posted By Greg Blaha
Banks' net income increased in the fourth quarter, largely due to a massive reduction in loan loss reserves.... Read More
Markets
What Is the Growth vs. Value Rotation About?
What Is the Growth vs. Value Rotation About?
Posted By Jim Bianco
If growth versus value is really about interest rates, then the market might not be thinking that reopening stocks are going to soar, as the reopening-to-disruptive ratio is not definitive in its reversal. If, however, the growth-to-value rotation is about interest rates, it is on the assumption that rising rates are being driven by "R" or relation/real growth and not I" or inflation.... Read More
Markets
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – March 11th, 2021
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – March 11th, 2021
Ben Breitholtz: Twitter: Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla B of A: ?We believe we are at a secular turning point for both inflation & interest rates,? with ?new central bank mandates, excess fiscal stimulus including UBI, less globalization, fading deflation from disruption, demographics... Read More
Markets
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – March 10, 2021
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – March 10, 2021
Jim Bianco: Measuring the old financial system versus the new one. Jim Bianco: What has worked in the stock market this year? Analyzing a company’s financial position and buying the weaker ones! Jim Bianco: Since June, all the stock... Read More
Markets
Is High Yield Becoming a Market of Bonds Again?
Is High Yield Becoming a Market of Bonds Again?
Posted By Jim Bianco
For quite a few years now, the high yield market has been driven by macro trading from options and ETFs. Maybe it is now returning to a market of high yield bonds in which credit is differentiated by issuers. Weaning this market off its macro dominance would be a positive development as it makes capital allocation much more efficient.... Read More
Markets
How Short Is the Bond Market?
How Short Is the Bond Market?
Posted By Jim Bianco
While the rapid rise in 10-year yields might be suggestive of a massive short in the Treasury market, an analysis of the data shows this is not really the case.... Read More
Markets
The Market Does Not Believe the Fed
The Market Does Not Believe the Fed
Posted By Jim Bianco
While the Fed continues to suggest the first rate hike won't occur until 2023 or later, the market is beginning to price in a hike as early as mid-2022.... Read More
Markets
Rates Trend Until Something Breaks
Rates Trend Until Something Breaks
Posted By Jim Bianco
It is often said a trend in bond yields continues until something breaks or the Fed is forced to change. To date, nothing has broken, but cracks are beginning to appear.... Read More
Markets
Disruption Is Only Obvious After the Fact
Disruption Is Only Obvious After the Fact
Posted By Jim Bianco
Bitcoins' volatility of late is standard fare for disruptive technologies. We would not be surprised if it has another 70% drawdown, followed by yet another new high.... Read More