The Japanese stock market has lagged behind the rest of the developed world. A giant equity bubble popping in the 1990s, an unwillingness to embrace change, and the lack of a large passive ETF market have all contributed to the 31-year drought.... Read More
Colleague: *** CPI for Aug 2021*** CPI m/m: +0.3% (vs +0.4% exp) CPI y/y: +5.3% (vs +5.3% exp) Core m/m: +0.1% (vs +0.3% exp) Core y/y: +4.0% (vs +4.2% exp) Differences between Core and headline CPI m/m were driven by... Read More
Ben Breitholtz: Top forecasters on core CPI see a slight miss at 0.2% MoM (vs est 0.3%). Another big release in CPI, yet bond investors show little to no fear! US Treasury implied volatility (via swaptions here 1m X 10y)... Read More
Ben Breitholtz: PPI remains ultra-high on a rolling 3-month annualized basis, rivalling levels last seen in the early 1980s. But! Commodity prices tracked by PPI have begun to abate to a 3-month annualized pace of 16%. The % of commodities... Read More
Ben Breitholtz: It’s ‘the olds’ who continue to have the largest right-side tail for inflation expectations. 46% of those aged 55 or more see 5+% YoY headline inflation over the year ahead. Greg Blaha: The Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations... Read More
Daily COVID cases appear to be peaking both in the United States and globally.... Read More
Three Big Secular Shifts Thursday, September 9, at 9:00 AM CT (10:00 AM ET, 7:00 AM PT and 15:00 BST) Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a client webinar/teleconference moderated by Jim Bianco. It... Read More
Jim Bianco joins Fox Business to discuss the COVID-19 Reopening and the Effect on the Market Ben Breitholtz: Investors creating a stronger and stronger floor for headline CPI within the eurozone at 1.5% YoY. Also now pricing in a 30%... Read More
We continue to believe the pandemic caused a secular shift toward work-from-home. The old models of how the labor force reacts to pay and working conditions have changed. This will lead to more "persistent" inflation.... Read More
Jim Bianco joins Bloomberg to discuss the Federal Reserve, Labor Market and the Delta Variant Ben Breitholtz: As foretold, the gap between US and German 10-year inflation breakevens is closing with recent range lows giving way. Investors pricing in a... Read More
To get a clearer picture of the slowdown in mobility, a deep dive into the data is necessary. Distinguishing between seasonal factors, Hurricane Ida, and the delta variant is a difficult task.... Read More
After the SEC suggested SPAC warrants should be considered liabilities instead of equity, SPAC activity came to a screeching halt.... Read More
Jim Bianco: Citi has monthly inflation surprise indices. Since today is the first they updated the August data. The data only goes back to 2009. This chart shows how “flat-footed” the economic community was when it comes to predicting inflation. ... Read More
Jim Bianco: ADP was a huge miss. The estimate was 625k (median) with a range of 400k to 850k, 34 economists offered guesses. The actual result was 374k, below the lowest guess. Warning! ADP has not been a good indicator of... Read More
Jim Bianco: US Latest But note that the cases from the south, including FL and TX, peaked on August 16 (orange line) But in the other 44 states, CV made a new high, and the rolling 7-day average (orange) continues... Read More
Ben Breitholtz: The ‘EVERYTHING RALLY’ is now the longest on record! The average Sharpe ratio across the spectrum of assets has been above 1-to-1 for 270 straight trading days. Such tightly packed risk-adjusted returns have only occurred ahead of the... Read More
Jim Bianco: *BIDEN ADVISERS EYE POWELL AS FED CHAIR, BRAINARD AS VICE CHAIR *BIDEN SEEN MAKING FED PERSONNEL ANNOUNCEMENTS LATER IN FALL *PAIRING POWELL AND BRAINARD COULD APPEASE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS Bloomberg: Biden Advisers Weigh Powell as Fed Chair, Brainard as... Read More