Jim Bianco: US Latest But note that the cases from the south, including FL and TX, peaked on August 16 (orange line) But in the other 44 states, CV made a new high, and the rolling 7-day average (orange) continues... Read More
Ben Breitholtz: The ‘EVERYTHING RALLY’ is now the longest on record! The average Sharpe ratio across the spectrum of assets has been above 1-to-1 for 270 straight trading days. Such tightly packed risk-adjusted returns have only occurred ahead of the... Read More
Jim Bianco: *BIDEN ADVISERS EYE POWELL AS FED CHAIR, BRAINARD AS VICE CHAIR *BIDEN SEEN MAKING FED PERSONNEL ANNOUNCEMENTS LATER IN FALL *PAIRING POWELL AND BRAINARD COULD APPEASE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS Bloomberg: Biden Advisers Weigh Powell as Fed Chair, Brainard as... Read More
Ben Breitholtz joins Oliver Renick to discuss the seasonality of inflation and how it affects the different areas of the market, and he shares one key metric that will ultimately decide how high inflation goes. Financial Times: Jay Powell must... Read More
Jim Bianco joins Bloomberg’s “The Open” on 8/25/21 Alex Malitas: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/08/22/the-new-powell-doctrine?utm_campaign=editorial-social&utm_medium=social-organic&utm_source=twitter Ben Breitholtz: Isn’t this the same debate we’ve seen since 2009?! This is one way to do it! *DELTA AIR LINES TO IMPOSE $200/MO FEE ON UNVACCINATED EMPLOYEES We... Read More
With the delta variant surging across the country, we are beginning to see mobility data, specifically transit and the return to the office, showing signs of declining. Retail has not been hit as hard.... Read More
Alex Malitas: Ben have you done anything that separates elements that have peaked versus those that haven’t? And their contribution going forward? (for example if increasing OER will offset the fall in all the transitory measures that peaked and hold... Read More
Right now, the delta variant is the biggest wildcard to economic growth.... Read More
Ben Breitholtz: Everyone should really watch consumers’ search activity closely to get an indication of the economy’s path. For now, search activity for going-out topics are moderately improving in August despite the spreading Delta variant. Here’s the spread of search... Read More
Bianco Research Conference Call Takeaways From Camp Kotok Replay The replay of our August 19, 2021 conference call titled Takeaways From Camp Kotok here. Jim Bianco joins Fox Business to discuss Delta?s impact on the economy, Cryptocurrencies & Inflation Ben... Read More
Ben Breitholtz: Fortunately, consumers’ search activity for going-out and staying-in topics has rebounded into August. Searches had peaked in late March and then troughed in June. Not (yet) seeing signs of a lasting, material slowdown in consumers’ intentions. Twitter: Carl... Read More
With the delta variant surging across the country, we are beginning to see mobility data, specifically transit and the return to the office, show signs of declining.... Read More
Ben Breitholtz: FED’S BULLARD: AT THIS STAGE, THE TAPER IS ESSENTIALLY PRICED INTO MARKETS; SPECIFICS MATTER JUST A BIT AT THIS POINT. Jim Bianco: The Fed thought the same thing in the fall of 2018, then they actually announced the... Read More
Jim Bianco: *U.S. RETAIL SALES DECREASED 1.1% IN JULY; EST. -0.3% Alex Malitas: Stagflation coming in..? Ben Breitholtz: Quite widespread weakness: This was the month of the Delta variant, so not surprising consumers pulled back a bit. Fortunately, consumers’ intentions... Read More
Ben Breitholtz: Empire manufacturing shows prices paid receded for the third straight month. Alex Malitas: Ben do you have the chart on the big negative surprise from the Empire survey? On business conditions. Ben Breitholtz: Here it is. Empire state... Read More
Colleague: From Bberg’s 5 things to start your day morning piece…. Fears are rising that the rapid spread of the delta variant may lead to a repeat of last year?s shipping nightmares. The partial closure of the world?s third-busiest container port yesterday is putting pressure... Read More
Ben Breitholtz: Investors taking PPI in stride. The breadth of commodities rising on a 3-mth annualized basis remains very elevated at 88%, the highest since March 1979. The right-side tail in commodity prices continues to build. 44% of commodities in... Read More