Container shipping profits are booming. Since the beginning of the pandemic, shipping stock returns are even outpacing bitcoin's returns. So, what incentives do these companies have to fix the shipping crisis?... Read More
Stock picking has not worked for at least a decade. Even Warren Buffett can attest to this. 2021 has been no different for stock pickers as the best strategy was buying the S&P 500 and forgetting about it.... Read More
Cathie Wood and the ARK ETFs, headlined by ARK Innovation (ARKK), are arguably the most important manager/complex on Wall Street. After their outstanding performance in 2020, these funds have significantly underperformed in 2021. We update their returns and investor flows.... Read More
Financial Times: Inflation tracker: the latest figures as countries grapple with rising prices Valentina Romei and Alan Smith – Much of the world is experiencing a dramatic bout of inflation. Yet many central banks are keeping interest rates at or... Read More
U.S. COVID cases appear poised to follow Europe much higher. Will U.S. policy follow the path we have seen before, with economic restrictions hurting growth and fostering even more inflation?... Read More
Some interesting charts from our recent COT report. ... Read More
Bianco Research Conference Call Replay: Does Omicron Mean MORE Inflation? Before omicron, inflation was the biggest threat to the economy. Overstimulation pushed demand to records and the supply chain couldn’t keep up. Additionally, the Great Resignation added to supply problems.... Read More
The T-bill curve is pricing in a technical default between December 15 and December 23.... Read More
Bianco Research Conference Call: Does Omicron Mean MORE Inflation? Tomorrow, December 2, at 9:00 AM CT (10:00 AM ET, 7:00 AM PT and 15:00 GMT) Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a webinar/teleconference moderated... Read More
Colleague: Client asking re your view expressed yesterday re inflation …wouldn’t a fall in oil from lockdowns be disinflationary? Jim Bianco: Oil would fall, but I don’t think core inflation falls unless you’re predicting a recession. If it gets that... Read More
Despite statements to the contrary, the supply chain is not getting better. The case could be made that it is the worst it has ever been now. Recent changes in shipping data appear to be designed to hide the problem, not alleviate it.... Read More
Before omicron, inflation was the biggest threat to the economy. Overstimulation pushed demand to records and the supply chain couldn't keep up. Additionally, the Great Resignation added to supply problems. Omicron could exaggerate this imbalance rather than reverse it.... Read More
Covid cases continue to rise in Europe and the U.S. A new variant is threatening the global economy and hurting risk markets worldwide.... Read More
Ben Breitholtz: Given liquidity issues and active central banks, currency tail risk is on the move as we expected! Colleague: So how does one play that tail risk Ben? Ben Breitholtz: Like we suggested, purest is 10 or 25 delta... Read More
Volatility and liquidity measures in bond markets, especially in the front end of the yield curve, have turned significantly worse in the last few months. At the same time, the dollar has soared and the market is nearly pricing in a May rate hike.... Read More
Jim Bianco joins Fox Business to discuss Cryptocurrencies with Charles Payne Jim Bianco: There is a market that look like the short-rates, the dollar. Here is the 2-year note and Dollar Index charts side-by-side. For those that think the move... Read More
Short rates are moving higher on the belief the Fed has to get aggressive next year. If this happens because of persistent inflation, the Fed is in a tough spot. They would have to pick one market to help. They cannot help both.... Read More
Jim Bianco: *U.S. POISED TO RELEASE OIL FROM RESERVE WITH OTHER NATIONS See the rectangle … how does this differ from what they have been doing? Jim Bianco: The market has three rate hikes priced in for 2022. A June... Read More
The market is pricing in a very aggressive Fed in 2022, complete with a sped up taper and three hikes. Economists and Fed officials remain more dovish, representing a real disconnect with the markets.... Read More
