Checking in on market drawdowns from their highs in a volatile week... Read More
Jim Bianco: Latest drawdown charts. The most worrisome part, to me, is interest rates are not giving an inch. In fact the 2-year finished about 1.60%. Zero flight to quality after this big decline. My takeaway, this is about inflation. ... Read More
For the time being, Putin appears to have no interest in backing down. This puts central banks in an even worse spot than before. Growth will likely take a hit, but inflation will also remain elevated. We believe the Fed will attempt to tame inflation first, worrying about slow growth later.... Read More
Jim Bianco: The 10:1 ratio of this tweet should stand as evidence of how important, and how angry, the public is about inflation. Jim Bianco: Manheim: Wholesale Vehicle Prices Decline in First Half of February Manheim Market Report (MMR) prices... Read More
The yield curve's flattening is a sign of growing concern that the Fed is going to hike too much and break something. The curve is not yet inverted, which would signal the market believes things are already breaking, but it continues to move toward that level.... Read More
Some interesting charts from our recent COT report. ... Read More
Bianco Research Conference Call: Fed Tightening Is Coming Thursday, February 17 at 9:00 AM CT (10:00 AM ET, 7:00 AM PT and 15:00 GMT) Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a client webinar/teleconference moderated... Read More
Passive 'buy and hold' capital has been pouring into the market even during the 10% decline in January 2022. This has led to a divergence in flows between allocator funds and trading funds.... Read More
Bianco Research Conference Call: Fed Tightening Is Coming The era of easy money is over. Now comes the tightening. How much will the Fed tighten? Why? And what will be its impact on the markets and the economy? Join us... Read More
Bianco Research Conference Call: Fed Tightening Is Coming The era of easy money is over. Now comes the tightening. How much will the Fed tighten? Why? And what will be its impact on the markets and the economy? Join us... Read More
Mounting pressures on central banks to tame inflation mean they are far less worried about maintaining asset prices.... Read More
Jim Bianco joins Bloomberg Real Yield to discuss the Fed Hike, Inflation & Yield Curve Jim Bianco: Morgan Stanley’s Vishy Tirupattur (the middle guy above) said that their economics department headed by Ellen Zentner has an early forecast for Feb... Read More
There is no doubt valuations are stretched and have been for some time. In a low-rate, strong-growth environment, this is not an issue. However, as we enter a period of Fed tightening and higher rates, the paradigm is shifting and valuations look more problematic.... Read More
Colleague: First time ever 5 consecutive worst than expected CPI. Jim Bianco: Durable good inflation is up 18% YoY. We are still buying “stuff” and not shifting to “services” or “experiences.” CME Fed Watch page is updating very slowly …... Read More
Bloomberg: Inflation-Stoking Supply Crunch Set to Ease in Second Half Christian Wienberg and Anna Edwards – A major player in global trade signaled disrupted supply chains rattling economies from Vietnam to Germany may return to normal within months, easing concerns... Read More
The high yield market, and we would argue the larger credit markets, have had two cycles over the past decade - buy and hedge. Right now we are in a hedging cycle. Persistent inflation and QT could initiate the first selling cycle in a long time.... Read More
Jim Bianco: The market now has 6 hikes priced in over the 7 FOMC meetings remaining in 2022. The consensus STILL cannot catch up to market pricing. Also not the market has 5 hikes priced in for the next 5... Read More
Jim Bianco: Spotify stock is down by almost half since it fall peak. The latest acceleration lower is the fear that they might lost Joe Rogan. And Rumble has stepped in today and offer Rogan $100 million to move to... Read More
