Bloomberg: Omicron Spares U.S. ICUs So Far, Mirroring South Africa Jonathan Levin – U.S. hospitals are so far seeing significantly fewer severe outcomes from the omicron wave than they saw in past Covid-19 spikes, mirroring the experience of South Africa... Read More
The U.S. public is concerned over inflation and COVID, which has resulted in lower approval ratings for Biden and Democrats. The Fed may have no choice but to respond, even if it puts the stock market at risk.... Read More
Last year's stock market rally was one of the narrowest ever seen. It was driven by the largest stocks in the S&P 500, with five stocks having a heavy influence on returns. Mid-cap, small-cap, and stock markets outside the U.S. failed to beat inflation.... Read More
2021 was marked by excess savings flowing into index funds and a few large stocks producing outsized returns. The further away one got from these themes, the worse they did.... Read More
Historically the first trading day of the year is volatile for a range of assets.... Read More
As Omicron cases surge worldwide, several million lost workdays are piling up. This will lead to a slowing of production and the supply chain, but not a similar loss of demand. The result will be more upward pressure on inflation.... Read More
The amount of outstanding private credit in the U.S. experienced a brief decline during the financial crisis, but government debt grew throughout the entire period. Both are now at new highs.... Read More
A look at outstanding amounts of Treasuries, corporates, agencies, munis and open market paper... Read More
Private pension funds have much smaller funding gaps than their government counterparts.... Read More
Defined benefit plans continue to be replaced by IRAs and defined contribution plans.... Read More
A home may be the biggest purchase most people make in their lives, but households' home equity is actually surpassed by households' direct stock ownership.... Read More
Personal consumption continues to make up a larger portion of U.S. GDP as time progresses.... Read More
Over 46% of FDIC deposits in the U.S. are uninsured.... Read More
We believe the bond market is signaling a high likelihood that the Fed ends up breaking either the markets or the economy.... Read More
For the last 13 years, whenever the economy or markets got wobbly, the Fed would inject massive accommodation and a recovery would ensue. This was possible because inflation never materialized. That?s not the case now.... Read More
The replay of the Bianco Research December 16, 2021 conference call titled What Does The Fed Do Now? can be found here. Jim Bianco: This is a 3-day tick chart of the S&P 500. It has now completely reversed the Powell rally from... Read More
Case counts continue to rise and more economic restrictions are being put in place.... Read More