Risk markets are rallying in the face of an inverted yield curve, the highest inflation in 40 years, and continuing war in Ukraine. We discuss current market positioning.... Read More
When the 10-year less 2-year yield curve inverts, 10-year yields often peak. When the 10-year less 2-year yield curve turns positive again, the Fed is often about to start cutting rates to head off a recession. 10-year yields historically decline during this period.... Read More
Jim Bianco: Craig Fuller, the CEO if Freightwaves believes a recession is imminent. I’ve been reading American Shipper and Freightwaves for over a year now (both publications have the same owner). They have been dead right about the state of... Read More
Jim Bianco: It seems the only thing that every expert ruled out was Ukraine could actually win this war, let alone win it in less than six weeks. To be clear, it is not over and Ukraine might still not... Read More
Markets often trend until they force a change of behavior. The bond market is trending hard. It has not yet forced a change of behavior, but we believe it eventually will.... Read More
Bianco Research Conference Call: Why Do We Have Inflation? Replay Jim Bianco joins BloombergTV to discuss the situation in Ukraine, Federal Reserve Hikes & Inflation Jim Bianco: Gas prices peaked on March 10 at $4.33. It fell everyday until yesterday... Read More
There is no doubt valuations are stretched and have been for some time. In a low-rate, strong-growth environment, this is not an issue. However, as we enter a period of higher rates, continuing war in eastern Europe, and record inflation prints, valuations look more problematic.... Read More
The markets are concerned the Fed will get too aggressive in its rate hikes and break something.... Read More
Bianco Research Conference Call: Why Do We Have Inflation? Thursday, March 24, at 9:00 AM CT (10:00 AM ET, 7:00 AM PT and 14:00 GMT) Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a client webinar/teleconference... Read More
Last week's rally in stocks bears some similarities to September/October 1939. If this overlay holds, stocks could be in for a painful period. During both World Wars inflation outpaced stock returns. The S&P 500 has already lagged CPI over the past year.... Read More
Bianco Research Conference Call: Why Do We Have Inflation? Thursday, March 24, at 9:00 AM CT (10:00 AM ET, 7:00 AM PT and 14:00 GMT) Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a client webinar/teleconference... Read More
A look at outstanding amounts of Treasuries, corporates, agencies, munis and open market paper... Read More
The amount of outstanding private credit in the U.S. experienced a brief decline during the financial crisis, but government debt grew throughout the entire period. Both are now at new highs.... Read More
Private pension funds have much smaller funding gaps than their government counterparts.... Read More
Defined benefit plans continue to be replaced by IRAs and defined contribution plans.... Read More
A home may be the biggest purchase most people make in their lives, but households' home equity is actually surpassed by households' direct stock ownership.... Read More
Almost 47% of FDIC deposits in the U.S. are uninsured.... Read More