Tag Archives: Markets
Markets
Implied vs. Realized Volatility
Implied vs. Realized Volatility
Posted By Alex Malitas
The end of bear markets tend to exhibit heightened volatility and increased trading volumes. Despite significant selling pressure in recent weeks, volatility indices do not indicate panic. Given this, it is important to note the connection between implied and realized volatility in markets.... Read More
Markets
Checking on Retail Investors
Checking on Retail Investors
Posted By Alex Malitas
Retail traders and dip buyers dominated the markets in 2020 and 2021. The current bear market has dented those groups' conviction, but not yet to the point of capitulation.... Read More
Markets
Are the Markets ‘Oversold’?
Are the Markets ‘Oversold’?
Posted By Jim Bianco
Bull markets rarely get overbought ... TINA, FOMO, and BTD. Bear markets are the opposite, they rarely get oversold, and "tradable lows" are all but impossible to measure with bull market metrics. ... Read More
Markets
The Treasury’s Interest Costs
The Treasury’s Interest Costs
Posted By Greg Blaha
How much have higher yields affected the Treasury's interest expenses?... Read More
Markets
Looking at Economic Strength
Looking at Economic Strength
Posted By Alex Malitas
We check in with some economic strength indices to measure where we are now versus one-year averages. ... Read More
Markets
A COVID Update
A COVID Update
Posted By Jim Bianco
The United States is the only place in the world where case counts are rising.... Read More
Markets
Where Is the Fed Put?
Where Is the Fed Put?
Posted By Jim Bianco
The Fed put is not 100% dead, but taming inflation is now the Fed's priority. The stress levels at which they supported markets in the past are no longer as relevant.... Read More
Markets
Where Are Valuations After the Correction?
Where Are Valuations After the Correction?
Posted By Alex Malitas
Valuations have come down but are still higher than average. For forward P/E ratios to remain lower, earnings will have to continue to be strong. This may be a tall order given concerns about recession and the highest inflation in 40 years.... Read More
Markets
Don’t Fight the Fed
Don’t Fight the Fed
Posted By Jim Bianco
The mix of fiscal and monetary stimulus in recent years created an extra 3% inflation in the U.S. The Fed intends to remove this excess stimulus by creating a reverse wealth effect.... Read More
Markets
Quantifying Liquidity Concerns
Quantifying Liquidity Concerns
Posted By Alex Malitas
Last week we raised concerns that declining liquidity across markets could be a sign that the Fed is already close to breaking something. Ahead of the Fed's planned balance sheet runoff, they have warned that liquidity is indeed an issue.... Read More
Markets
Another ARK Update as Cathie Wood Doubles Down
Another ARK Update as Cathie Wood Doubles Down
Posted By Alex Malitas
Cathie Wood and the ARK ETFs, headlined by ARK Innovation (ARKK), are arguably the most important manager/complex on Wall Street. After their outstanding performance in 2020, these funds significantly underperformed in 2021 and have had an abysmal start to 2022. Wood is sticking to her guns and so are her investors.... Read More
Markets
Code Words to Look for at Today’s FOMC Meeting
Code Words to Look for at Today’s FOMC Meeting
Posted By Jim Bianco
When Powell described the labor market as being in good shape, he was saying it could handle aggressive rate hikes without massive job losses. Will he signal this again and set the stage for a 75 basis point hike in June?... Read More
Markets
From Transitory to Breaking Something
From Transitory to Breaking Something
Posted By Jim Bianco
Long-term debt and equity traders still think the fed funds market has priced in too many hikes. Stock and bond traders initially perceived inflation to be transitory. Now they believe the Fed is on the verge of going too far and breaking something.... Read More
Markets
What Might Break in the Markets?
What Might Break in the Markets?
Posted By Alex Malitas
If the Fed does not tighten far enough, they risk a period of longer and higher inflation. If the Fed raises rates at a strong pace, something in the market is likely to break. This is the catch-22 of the year 2022.... Read More
