Tag Archives: Markets
Markets
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – April 13th, 2022
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – April 13th, 2022
Colleague: 2s10s is 45bps steeper in 7 trading days….that’s gotta be a recent record in move over such a short time frame… Jim Bianco: What is driving this steepening is a big surge in the long-end. When TOTAL RETURN losses... Read More
Markets
The Fed Is Not Risk Markets’ Friend
The Fed Is Not Risk Markets’ Friend
Posted By Jim Bianco
Quantitative tightening will actively work against financial asset holders, creating a reverse wealth effect that destroys demand.... Read More
Markets
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – April 7th, 2022
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – April 7th, 2022
Jim Bianco: 81% of a 50 bps hike on May 4 (to 0.75% to 1.00%) 87% of a second 50 bps hike on June 15 (to 1.15% to 1.50%) 65% of a third 50 bps hike on July 27 (to... Read More
Markets
Active Versus Passive Performance
Active Versus Passive Performance
Posted By Alex Malitas
Active managers across markets are struggling as the Fed begins its rate hiking campaign. Investors seem willing to ride out market volatility, but not bet that money managers will keep up.... Read More
Markets
Extreme Positioning Shift Across Markets
Extreme Positioning Shift Across Markets
Posted By Alex Malitas
Risk markets are rallying in the face of an inverted yield curve, the highest inflation in 40 years, and continuing war in Ukraine. We discuss current market positioning.... Read More
Markets
The 10-Year When the Curve Inverts
The 10-Year When the Curve Inverts
Posted By Jim Bianco
When the 10-year less 2-year yield curve inverts, 10-year yields often peak. When the 10-year less 2-year yield curve turns positive again, the Fed is often about to start cutting rates to head off a recession. 10-year yields historically decline during this period.... Read More
Markets
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – April 1st, 2022
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – April 1st, 2022
Jim Bianco: Craig Fuller, the CEO if Freightwaves believes a recession is imminent. I’ve been reading American Shipper and Freightwaves for over a year now (both publications have the same owner). They have been dead right about the state of... Read More
Markets
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – March 29th, 2022
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – March 29th, 2022
Jim Bianco: It seems the only thing that every expert ruled out was Ukraine could actually win this war, let alone win it in less than six weeks. To be clear, it is not over and Ukraine might still not... Read More
Markets
New Wounds in the Bond Market Bloodbath
New Wounds in the Bond Market Bloodbath
Posted By Jim Bianco
Markets often trend until they force a change of behavior. The bond market is trending hard. It has not yet forced a change of behavior, but we believe it eventually will.... Read More
Markets
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – March 25th, 2022
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – March 25th, 2022
Bianco Research Conference Call: Why Do We Have Inflation? Replay Jim Bianco joins BloombergTV to discuss the situation in Ukraine, Federal Reserve Hikes & Inflation Jim Bianco: Gas prices peaked on March 10 at $4.33. It fell everyday until yesterday... Read More
Markets
Where Are Valuations and How Did We Get Here?
Where Are Valuations and How Did We Get Here?
Posted By Alex Malitas
There is no doubt valuations are stretched and have been for some time. In a low-rate, strong-growth environment, this is not an issue. However, as we enter a period of higher rates, continuing war in eastern Europe, and record inflation prints, valuations look more problematic.... Read More
Markets
Interpreting Different Yield Curves
Interpreting Different Yield Curves
Posted By Jim Bianco
The markets are concerned the Fed will get too aggressive in its rate hikes and break something.... Read More
Markets
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – March 22nd, 2022
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – March 22nd, 2022
Bianco Research Conference Call: Why Do We Have Inflation? Thursday, March 24, at 9:00 AM CT (10:00 AM ET, 7:00 AM PT and 14:00 GMT) Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a client webinar/teleconference... Read More
Markets
Markets and World Wars
Markets and World Wars
Posted By Jim Bianco
Last week's rally in stocks bears some similarities to September/October 1939. If this overlay holds, stocks could be in for a painful period. During both World Wars inflation outpaced stock returns. The S&P 500 has already lagged CPI over the past year.... Read More
Markets
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – March 21st, 2022
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – March 21st, 2022
Bianco Research Conference Call: Why Do We Have Inflation? Thursday, March 24, at 9:00 AM CT (10:00 AM ET, 7:00 AM PT and 14:00 GMT) Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a client webinar/teleconference... Read More
