Tag Archives: Markets
Markets
How Does the Bond Market Look?
How Does the Bond Market Look?
Posted By Alex Malitas
Many have called June the peak in yields. Yet, as yields soared this year, flows did not indicate capitulation. As the bond market continues to rally since mid-June, inflows have come in strong.... Read More
Markets
Global Inflation
Global Inflation
Posted By Jim Bianco
Inflation is a global problem, but the U.S. has a bigger problem than most. The U.S. increased its money supply more than any country and sent out more pandemic stimulus than anyone else. So, while the Fed cannot print ships or barrels of oil, they can rein in this excess demand-driven inflation by remaining aggressively hawkish.... Read More
Markets
Is Sentiment Extreme?
Is Sentiment Extreme?
Posted By Alex Malitas
Some market sentiment measures have reached levels at which the Fed used to intervene. With the fight against inflation now a top priority, the Fed put can no longer be relied upon.... Read More
Markets
Do We Understand the Post-Pandemic Economy?
Do We Understand the Post-Pandemic Economy?
Posted By Jim Bianco
Economists continue to forecast the Fed will back off on its aggressive rate-hiking campaign. Underlying this belief is a view that the world has not changed post-pandemic. However, we now live in a world of supply challenges. Pumping up demand, as these economists want, will make things worse.... Read More
Markets
Updating Valuations
Updating Valuations
Posted By Alex Malitas
The S&P 500 recently fell into bear market territory before staging a rally in the past two weeks. Valuations have come down significantly from the peak, yet a likely U.S. recession throws into question if earnings can justify valuations. ... Read More
Markets
Renting vs. Owning
Renting vs. Owning
Posted By Greg Blaha
For those unable to afford a 20% downpayment, the cost of renting is now cheaper than the cost of buying a house.... Read More
Markets
The Cost of Servicing U.S. Debt
The Cost of Servicing U.S. Debt
For the last few decades we have been in a low interest rate environment where deficit spending would not cause major issues, however 40-year high inflation prompted the Fed to tighten monetary policy, raising rates fast by large sized hikes. Higher rates means the cost of US debt will quickly explode higher. ... Read More
Markets
Understanding Forward Curves
Understanding Forward Curves
Posted By Jim Bianco
Forward curves tell us what is priced in and what is expected. But, they do not tell us what may actually happen.... Read More
Markets
Recession or Inflation, Which Matters More?
Recession or Inflation, Which Matters More?
Posted By Jim Bianco
Until the Fed gives some indication that inflation is not a priority, growth will slow, a recession is very much a possibility, and the Fed will remain aggressive in hiking rates.... Read More
Markets
How high will the 2yr go?
How high will the 2yr go?
Client Question for team Bianco: What is Arbor’s view on fed funds rate vs. The 2yrs given that the expected terminal rate is between 3 and 4%… In other words, how high will the 2yr go? Jim Bianco: First the... Read More
Markets
Breaking Down Debt in the U.S.
Breaking Down Debt in the U.S.
A look at outstanding amounts of Treasuries, corporates, agencies, munis and open market paper... Read More
Markets
Comparing the Value of Credit in the U.S. to GDP
Comparing the Value of Credit in the U.S. to GDP
The amount of outstanding private credit in the U.S. experienced a brief decline during the financial crisis, but government debt grew throughout the entire period. Both are now at new highs.... Read More