U.S. Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) account for about one-quarter of the trading on U.S. stock and options exchanges.... Read More
The consensus continues to view inflation as transitory across the globe, soon returning to 2%. This rests on an understanding that nothing has changed and the pre-pandemic economy is returning.... Read More
Several alternative measures of the housing market suggest the exuberance seen since the pandemic have peaked.... Read More
As summer gives way to fall in the northern hemisphere, several seasonal total return trends also change.... Read More
Inflation projections and forward curves suggest many still believe inflation will quickly return to 2%, giving the Fed reason to stop hiking and start cutting rates. Risk markets, like equities and high yield, are rallying in anticipation of easier policy. Unfortunately these projections and forward curves do not have good track records in predicting the future.... Read More
The latest data shows Democrats have closed the polling gap with Republicans. The Senate is now favored to stay in Democrat control.... Read More
The broad stock market averages bottomed in mid-June. What has rallied and what has not?... Read More
Both the Cleveland Federal Reserve's CPI Nowcast and the median Wall Street CPI estimate have proven too low in 17 of the last 18 months. Such a consistent one-sided forecasting error suggests a change in the economy is not being accounted for, meaning inflation might be more persistent than most believe.... Read More
While the word 'transitory' has been stricken from economic playbooks, risk markets are still hoping inflation data will allow the Fed to wind down rate hikes in the near future. Is this wishful thinking?... Read More
July CPI MoM 63 Est 0.2% Median 0.3% Cleveland Fed Nowcast 0.0% to 0.4% Range July CPI YoY 44 Est 8.7% Median 8.8% Cleveland Fed Nowcast 8.5% to 8.9% Range July Core CPI MoM 63 Est 0.5% Median 0.5% Cleveland... Read More
Equity markets have rallied despite several headwinds. In 2020 and 2021, retail traders bought every dip. In 2022, these traders don't seem convinced. ... Read More
Indian tycoon Gautam Adani has seen his net worth increase more than anyone else in the world since the end of 2020. He is now the fourth richest person in the world.... Read More
Fed officials are signaling they might not be done with the inflation fight. Market pricing is not so sure.... Read More
The high yield market, and we would argue the larger credit markets, have had two cycles over the past decade - buy and hedge. Right now we are in a hedging cycle. Persistent inflation and QT could initiate the first selling cycle in a long time.... Read More
While many major asset classes back off record returns on the year as bonds rally and commodities cool off, returns continue to stay at historical extremes. ... Read More
With Q2 2022 earnings season underway, revenue and earnings growth expectations for Q2 continue to surprise yet expectations for future growth are crashing as uncertainties around the economy grow.... Read More
