We check in with some economic strength indices to measure where we are now versus one-year averages. ... Read More
The United States is the only place in the world where case counts are rising.... Read More
The Fed put is not 100% dead, but taming inflation is now the Fed's priority. The stress levels at which they supported markets in the past are no longer as relevant.... Read More
Valuations have come down but are still higher than average. For forward P/E ratios to remain lower, earnings will have to continue to be strong. This may be a tall order given concerns about recession and the highest inflation in 40 years.... Read More
The mix of fiscal and monetary stimulus in recent years created an extra 3% inflation in the U.S. The Fed intends to remove this excess stimulus by creating a reverse wealth effect.... Read More
Last week we raised concerns that declining liquidity across markets could be a sign that the Fed is already close to breaking something. Ahead of the Fed's planned balance sheet runoff, they have warned that liquidity is indeed an issue.... Read More
Cathie Wood and the ARK ETFs, headlined by ARK Innovation (ARKK), are arguably the most important manager/complex on Wall Street. After their outstanding performance in 2020, these funds significantly underperformed in 2021 and have had an abysmal start to 2022. Wood is sticking to her guns and so are her investors.... Read More
When Powell described the labor market as being in good shape, he was saying it could handle aggressive rate hikes without massive job losses. Will he signal this again and set the stage for a 75 basis point hike in June?... Read More
Long-term debt and equity traders still think the fed funds market has priced in too many hikes. Stock and bond traders initially perceived inflation to be transitory. Now they believe the Fed is on the verge of going too far and breaking something.... Read More
If the Fed does not tighten far enough, they risk a period of longer and higher inflation. If the Fed raises rates at a strong pace, something in the market is likely to break. This is the catch-22 of the year 2022.... Read More
When measured on a total return basis, the bond market is in a historic decline. Yet, futures positioning and economists' opinions are not overly bearish. Momentum-driven research is very bearish and stands in opposition. Add it up and sentiment data is not suggesting a capitulation low in prices has taken place yet.... Read More
"Hike to something breaks" is now the Fed's unofficial policy. This could mean a plunging stock market/economy or runaway inflation. But the Fed is not stopping until something breaks.... Read More
A look at the latest infection counts around the world... Read More
Inflation is at multi-decade highs, interest rates are rising, and the Fed has signaled they are willing to do anything necessary to bring down inflation. Despite this backdrop, the housing market is as hot as ever. We argue this is not a bubble, but a fundamental shift in demand.... Read More
The market is concerned the Fed has fallen behind on the inflation front, so yields are spiking and bank stocks are falling in kind. The remedy is for the Fed to get serious and start raising rates 50 basis points at every meeting going forward. Yes, this risks the Fed doing too much and breaking something. But this is the consequence of the Fed dismissing inflation as transitory last year and staying way too easy for way too long.... Read More
Jim Bianco joins CNBC?s Closing Bell to discuss Rate Hikes & how the Fed views Earnings Season Jim Bianco: The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index began in 1990. Its market value is currently $62.8 TRILLION and has over 28,000 member bonds.... Read More