Redfin's alternative measures of the housing market continue to show a deceleration in the crazy conditions of the last year.... Read More
Inflation was held down by four "bubbles" - cheap labor, cheap goods, cheap energy and better technology. The three "cheap bubbles" have burst and technology alone cannot offset the loss of the other three. This means persistently high inflation going forward.... Read More
Have market stresses reached panic levels that would suggest all the potential bad news is priced in? We do not believe so, suggesting more turbulence could be ahead.... Read More
In the Wall Street Journal this morning, "Federal Reserve Chairman Nick Timiraos" signaled a third consecutive 75 basis point hike coming on September 21 and markets reacted accordingly. With just a few weeks until the meeting, even the August CPI report next week might not change this expectation.... Read More
As the world is focused on European energy, COVID is again rising in China and zero COVID lockdowns are now impacting over a third of their economy, the highest in over 18 months. This is going to again snarl an already struggling global supply chain.... Read More
U.S. Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) account for about one-quarter of the trading on U.S. stock and options exchanges.... Read More
The consensus continues to view inflation as transitory across the globe, soon returning to 2%. This rests on an understanding that nothing has changed and the pre-pandemic economy is returning.... Read More
Several alternative measures of the housing market suggest the exuberance seen since the pandemic have peaked.... Read More
As summer gives way to fall in the northern hemisphere, several seasonal total return trends also change.... Read More
Inflation projections and forward curves suggest many still believe inflation will quickly return to 2%, giving the Fed reason to stop hiking and start cutting rates. Risk markets, like equities and high yield, are rallying in anticipation of easier policy. Unfortunately these projections and forward curves do not have good track records in predicting the future.... Read More
The latest data shows Democrats have closed the polling gap with Republicans. The Senate is now favored to stay in Democrat control.... Read More
The broad stock market averages bottomed in mid-June. What has rallied and what has not?... Read More
Both the Cleveland Federal Reserve's CPI Nowcast and the median Wall Street CPI estimate have proven too low in 17 of the last 18 months. Such a consistent one-sided forecasting error suggests a change in the economy is not being accounted for, meaning inflation might be more persistent than most believe.... Read More
While the word 'transitory' has been stricken from economic playbooks, risk markets are still hoping inflation data will allow the Fed to wind down rate hikes in the near future. Is this wishful thinking?... Read More
