Globally, stocks' and bonds' combined market caps have declined over 15%.... Read More
Redfin's alternative measures of the housing market continue to show a deceleration in the crazy conditions of the last year.... Read More
The Fed has been explicit in their goal to continue raising rates, but the markets are still hoping for a pivot. Behind this tension is a disagreement about the long-term outlook for inflation. Is it persistent?... Read More
10-year yields are up nine straight weeks, the longest such streak in over 28 years. History shows this type of rise in yields typically proves detrimental for the stock market.... Read More
The bond market suffers from high volatility, illiquidity, stress, and record losses. These problems are spilling over into the currency and stock markets. ... Read More
Equity markets have yet to show full panic even as macro headwinds grow. With flows and volatility showing no signs of capitulation, we are unlikely at a bottom until positioning shifts.... Read More
The labor market is not showing signs of faltering, which is only adding to fears the Fed will continue hiking. Stress is showing in the markets, however.... Read More
In Chairman Powell's press conference on Wednesday, he said the Fed would like to see interest rates "across the entire yield curve" move above the inflation. If positive real rates are the goal, rates have to move another 100 basis points higher.... Read More
As hawkish talk continues, the forward curve is pricing in a higher terminal rate. This pushes up the 2-year yield. If the yield curve holds its current spread, the 10-year should also shift higher.... Read More
The pressure is back on the Bank of Japan as 10-year JGB rates hover around their preferred upper limit of 0.25%.... Read More
As inflation remains at elevated levels, the correlation between stock and bond returns is a telling sign on investors' thinking.... Read More
Redfin's alternative measures of the housing market continue to show a deceleration in the crazy conditions of the last year.... Read More
Inflation was held down by four "bubbles" - cheap labor, cheap goods, cheap energy and better technology. The three "cheap bubbles" have burst and technology alone cannot offset the loss of the other three. This means persistently high inflation going forward.... Read More
Have market stresses reached panic levels that would suggest all the potential bad news is priced in? We do not believe so, suggesting more turbulence could be ahead.... Read More
In the Wall Street Journal this morning, "Federal Reserve Chairman Nick Timiraos" signaled a third consecutive 75 basis point hike coming on September 21 and markets reacted accordingly. With just a few weeks until the meeting, even the August CPI report next week might not change this expectation.... Read More
As the world is focused on European energy, COVID is again rising in China and zero COVID lockdowns are now impacting over a third of their economy, the highest in over 18 months. This is going to again snarl an already struggling global supply chain.... Read More
