Powell delivered a hawkish press conference, focusing on a higher terminal rate. Risk markets, like stocks, reacted with bitter disappointment.... Read More
Big tech, specifically social media companies, have struggled recently as investors realize growth doesn't last forever. Is this the end of big tech's dominance in indices?... Read More
Up to this point, the 10-year less 3-month yield curve has not shown concern that the Fed may be moving too fast and breaking something. But, as the Fed is on the verge of hiking another 75 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, the possibility of a persistently inverted yield curve is growing. If the curve is still inverted a couple weeks from now, a recession is likely to follow.... Read More
The relentless rise in yields that began in late July is not yet showing signs of abating. The S&P 500 has lost 8% over this period after being down as much as 17%. Stocks will remain under pressure until yields reverse. Will it take a harsh sell-off in the S&P 500 and a risk-off rally in Treasuries to end this streak?... Read More
Just as pivot talk disappeared, a new narrative has emerged. The Fed will "step down" from consecutive 75 basis points hikes. This excited the stock market on Friday. Will this catch-phrase prove effective or will it disappoint like its previous iterations of transitory, pause, and pivot?... Read More
Without any direct evidence of a worsening economy or a financial accident, such as plunging stock prices, both the long- and short-end of the yield curve can continue to shift higher. With the forward curve projecting a fed funds terminal rate of 5%, history suggests the 2-year yield should go above this level.... Read More
For the first time in years, bitcoin's realized volatility is actually lower than the S&P 500's.... Read More
As the "Everything Bubble" accelerated, real estate values rose at an extreme fast speed, pricing would-be buyers out of the market. As the pandemic consumed the globe, home values skyrocketed to a year-over year change over $60k. This has since rolled over.... Read More
Redfin's alternative measures of the housing market continue to show a deceleration in the crazy conditions of the last year.... Read More
Total options volume has soared since the end of 2019 as retail traders have become dominant in using short-dated (less than a week) options as speculative tools. With the macroeconomic backdrop constantly changing, they bounce back and forth between puts and calls, This is amplifying volatility in markets.... Read More
Rising yields are taking their toll on the S&P 500, so much so that stocks are currently more volatile than Bitcoin. Without a Fed pivot in sight, stocks may have to have a sharp correction before yields stop moving higher.... Read More
The extreme pace of global central bank tightening is causing turmoil across all financial markets. Much of the focus is on the "liquidity hole" in the bond market, however equity markets are showing cracks. ... Read More
As the dollar continues its relentless rise in 2022, stocks in the S&P 500 most heavily dependent on foreign revenues have underperformed stocks focused on U.S. revenues.... Read More
2022 has been a year of asking, "could it get any worse?" With central banks raising rates at a historic pace, financial markets are feeling the pressure. The S&P 500 has fallen roughly 24%, but signs of panic have yet to appear even as large traders abandon positions. ... Read More
As the Fed hikes and short rates increase, long rates should get dragged higher. Economic data would need to weaken meaningfully to change this outlook.... Read More
The S&P 500 Total Return Index, adjusted for inflation, sank below the last bull market peak of February 19, 2020.... Read More