Tag Archives: Markets
How Stressed Are Markets?
Posted By Alex Malitas
Have market stresses reached panic levels that would suggest all the potential bad news is priced in? We do not believe so, suggesting more turbulence could be ahead.... Read More
“Chairman Timiraos” Signals a Third 75bps Hike Is Coming
Posted By Jim Bianco
In the Wall Street Journal this morning, "Federal Reserve Chairman Nick Timiraos" signaled a third consecutive 75 basis point hike coming on September 21 and markets reacted accordingly. With just a few weeks until the meeting, even the August CPI report next week might not change this expectation.... Read More
Zero COVID Hitting China Again
Posted By Jim Bianco
As the world is focused on European energy, COVID is again rising in China and zero COVID lockdowns are now impacting over a third of their economy, the highest in over 18 months. This is going to again snarl an already struggling global supply chain.... Read More
ETF Dominance
Posted By Jim Bianco
U.S. Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) account for about one-quarter of the trading on U.S. stock and options exchanges.... Read More
Is Inflation “Fever” Really Breaking?
Posted By Jim Bianco
The consensus continues to view inflation as transitory across the globe, soon returning to 2%. This rests on an understanding that nothing has changed and the pre-pandemic economy is returning.... Read More
Alternative Signs of a Peaking Housing Market?
Posted By Greg Blaha
Several alternative measures of the housing market suggest the exuberance seen since the pandemic have peaked.... Read More
Seasonality Trends as Summer Ends in the Northern Hemisphere
Posted By Greg Blaha
As summer gives way to fall in the northern hemisphere, several seasonal total return trends also change.... Read More
Will Inflation Projections and Forward Curves Prove Correct?
Posted By Jim Bianco
Inflation projections and forward curves suggest many still believe inflation will quickly return to 2%, giving the Fed reason to stop hiking and start cutting rates. Risk markets, like equities and high yield, are rallying in anticipation of easier policy. Unfortunately these projections and forward curves do not have good track records in predicting the future.... Read More
Midterm Probability Update
Posted By Jim Bianco
The latest data shows Democrats have closed the polling gap with Republicans. The Senate is now favored to stay in Democrat control.... Read More
The Composition of the Stock Market Rally
Posted By Alex Malitas
The broad stock market averages bottomed in mid-June. What has rallied and what has not?... Read More
Inflation Forecasting Errors
Posted By Jim Bianco
Both the Cleveland Federal Reserve's CPI Nowcast and the median Wall Street CPI estimate have proven too low in 17 of the last 18 months. Such a consistent one-sided forecasting error suggests a change in the economy is not being accounted for, meaning inflation might be more persistent than most believe.... Read More
Where Is Inflation Going?
Posted By Jim Bianco
While the word 'transitory' has been stricken from economic playbooks, risk markets are still hoping inflation data will allow the Fed to wind down rate hikes in the near future. Is this wishful thinking?... Read More
Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast Update
July CPI MoM 63 Est 0.2% Median 0.3% Cleveland Fed Nowcast 0.0% to 0.4% Range July CPI YoY 44 Est 8.7% Median 8.8% Cleveland Fed Nowcast 8.5% to 8.9% Range July Core CPI MoM 63 Est 0.5% Median 0.5% Cleveland... Read More
Retail Traders and the Rally
Posted By Alex Malitas
Equity markets have rallied despite several headwinds. In 2020 and 2021, retail traders bought every dip. In 2022, these traders don't seem convinced. ... Read More