Tag Archives: Markets
Markets
Chairman Powell Forecasts Interest Rates
Chairman Powell Forecasts Interest Rates
Posted By Jim Bianco
In Chairman Powell's press conference on Wednesday, he said the Fed would like to see interest rates "across the entire yield curve" move above the inflation. If positive real rates are the goal, rates have to move another 100 basis points higher.... Read More
Markets
Will a Higher Terminal Rate Result in Higher 10-Year Yields?
Will a Higher Terminal Rate Result in Higher 10-Year Yields?
Posted By Jim Bianco
As hawkish talk continues, the forward curve is pricing in a higher terminal rate. This pushes up the 2-year yield. If the yield curve holds its current spread, the 10-year should also shift higher.... Read More
Markets
The Pressure Is on the BoJ
The Pressure Is on the BoJ
Posted By Greg Blaha
The pressure is back on the Bank of Japan as 10-year JGB rates hover around their preferred upper limit of 0.25%.... Read More
Markets
The Correlation Between Stocks & Bonds
The Correlation Between Stocks & Bonds
Posted By Greg Blaha
As inflation remains at elevated levels, the correlation between stock and bond returns is a telling sign on investors' thinking.... Read More
Markets
Updating Alternative Signs of Housing’s Deceleration
Updating Alternative Signs of Housing’s Deceleration
Posted By Jim Bianco
Redfin's alternative measures of the housing market continue to show a deceleration in the crazy conditions of the last year.... Read More
Markets
Why Inflation Will Remain Persistent
Why Inflation Will Remain Persistent
Posted By Jim Bianco
Inflation was held down by four "bubbles" - cheap labor, cheap goods, cheap energy and better technology. The three "cheap bubbles" have burst and technology alone cannot offset the loss of the other three. This means persistently high inflation going forward.... Read More
Markets
How Stressed Are Markets?
How Stressed Are Markets?
Posted By Alex Malitas
Have market stresses reached panic levels that would suggest all the potential bad news is priced in? We do not believe so, suggesting more turbulence could be ahead.... Read More
Markets
“Chairman Timiraos” Signals a Third 75bps Hike Is Coming
“Chairman Timiraos” Signals a Third 75bps Hike Is Coming
Posted By Jim Bianco
In the Wall Street Journal this morning, "Federal Reserve Chairman Nick Timiraos" signaled a third consecutive 75 basis point hike coming on September 21 and markets reacted accordingly. With just a few weeks until the meeting, even the August CPI report next week might not change this expectation.... Read More
Markets
Zero COVID Hitting China Again
Zero COVID Hitting China Again
Posted By Jim Bianco
As the world is focused on European energy, COVID is again rising in China and zero COVID lockdowns are now impacting over a third of their economy, the highest in over 18 months. This is going to again snarl an already struggling global supply chain.... Read More
Markets
ETF Dominance
ETF Dominance
Posted By Jim Bianco
U.S. Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) account for about one-quarter of the trading on U.S. stock and options exchanges.... Read More
Markets
Is Inflation “Fever” Really Breaking?
Is Inflation “Fever” Really Breaking?
Posted By Jim Bianco
The consensus continues to view inflation as transitory across the globe, soon returning to 2%. This rests on an understanding that nothing has changed and the pre-pandemic economy is returning.... Read More
Markets
Alternative Signs of a Peaking Housing Market?
Alternative Signs of a Peaking Housing Market?
Posted By Greg Blaha
Several alternative measures of the housing market suggest the exuberance seen since the pandemic have peaked.... Read More
Markets
Seasonality Trends as Summer Ends in the Northern Hemisphere
Seasonality Trends as Summer Ends in the Northern Hemisphere
Posted By Greg Blaha
As summer gives way to fall in the northern hemisphere, several seasonal total return trends also change.... Read More
Markets
Will Inflation Projections and Forward Curves Prove Correct?
Will Inflation Projections and Forward Curves Prove Correct?
Posted By Jim Bianco
Inflation projections and forward curves suggest many still believe inflation will quickly return to 2%, giving the Fed reason to stop hiking and start cutting rates. Risk markets, like equities and high yield, are rallying in anticipation of easier policy. Unfortunately these projections and forward curves do not have good track records in predicting the future.... Read More