Tag Archives: Markets

Markets

The Yield Curve Officially Flashes a Recession Signal
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

Today marks the 10th consecutive day that the 10-year less 3-month yield curve has been inverted. When inverted for this long, the yield curve has an eight-for-eight track record over the last 50+ years in predicting recession. On average, recessions typically start 10 months later.... Read More

Markets

Valuations in a Bear Market Rally
Posted By Alex Malitas  |  Featured, Newsclips

The S&P 500 bounced strongly off the latest CPI data that indicated inflation may be peaking. If October 10th was the bear market low, how do valuations now compare to previous bear market bottoms?... Read More

Markets

The Yield Curve Goes Extreme
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

Extremely inverted yield curves signal the Fed is too tight. But they have only reached this point in the last few weeks. It typically takes several months of this condition for a slowdown/recession or policy pivot to materialize.... Read More

Markets

Still No Long-Term Vision at the Fed
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

Lately, Fed officials' speeches have signaled what the FOMC will do at the next meeting. Missing is the speech explaining why an aggressive policy is needed. We believe Fed officials do not give this speech because they cannot agree on this case.... Read More

Markets

It’s All About the Terminal Rate
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

Powell delivered a hawkish press conference, focusing on a higher terminal rate. Risk markets, like stocks, reacted with bitter disappointment.... Read More

Markets

Rethinking Big Tech’s Dominance
Posted By Alex Malitas  |  Featured, Newsclips

Big tech, specifically social media companies, have struggled recently as investors realize growth doesn't last forever. Is this the end of big tech's dominance in indices?... Read More

Markets

The 10-Year Less 3-Month Yield Curve Inverts
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

Up to this point, the 10-year less 3-month yield curve has not shown concern that the Fed may be moving too fast and breaking something. But, as the Fed is on the verge of hiking another 75 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, the possibility of a persistently inverted yield curve is growing. If the curve is still inverted a couple weeks from now, a recession is likely to follow.... Read More

Markets

What Will End 10-Year Yields’ Consecutive Weekly Rise?
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

The relentless rise in yields that began in late July is not yet showing signs of abating. The S&P 500 has lost 8% over this period after being down as much as 17%. Stocks will remain under pressure until yields reverse. Will it take a harsh sell-off in the S&P 500 and a risk-off rally in Treasuries to end this streak?... Read More

Markets

Will the Fed “Step Down”?
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

Just as pivot talk disappeared, a new narrative has emerged. The Fed will "step down" from consecutive 75 basis points hikes. This excited the stock market on Friday. Will this catch-phrase prove effective or will it disappoint like its previous iterations of transitory, pause, and pivot?... Read More