A look at the holdings of government-only money market funds versus prime money market funds... Read More
Today alone, the U.S. Treasury will issue over $170 billion of bills. This is the beginning of a total wave of issuance over the next few months expected to top one trillion dollars. What it means depends on how much of the funds for these new issues come from the Fed's Reverse Repo Facility (RRP). Predicting moves in the RRP is difficult. So, over the next few days, we will watch the daily take from the RRP.... Read More
Worsening loan conditions have yet to send high-yield spreads wider. It is worth noting the index contains higher quality bonds than in past crises.... Read More
Tax receipts only cover 70% of federal spending as net interest costs are projected to rise.... Read More
Nvidia has capitalized on the AI frenzy, joining a small club of companies worth more than $1 trillion.... Read More
Before May 2022, regulators worried that stablecoins posed a systemic risk to traditional financial markets, like Treasury bills. What if everyone lost confidence in stablecoins and moved at once to get out, causing their reserves to dump hundreds of billions of Treasury bills all at once. Now, traditional markets and their regulators, and the specter of defaulting Treasury bills (off the table until early 2025), pose a risk to stablecoins! This is leading to the stablecoin of choice being offshore, opaque, and not involved in Treasury bills ... USDT and not the regulated and transparent options of USDC. How things have changed!... Read More
Now that a debt deal is in place, the Treasury is expected to issue up to $1 trillion in new securities over the next few months. If investors purchase these securities, it will create a liquidity drain. History shows such drains cause financial market turbulence. If these Treasuries are purchased using funds in the Fed's reverse repo facility, the liquidity drain will be greatly muted.... Read More
Inflation data and booming stock prices put a rate hike in play for June. A second hike in July is not out of the picture. Bond yields and the curve are responding accordingly.... Read More
Since early March, the AI/ChatGPT stocks have continued to soar on the idea of a paradigm shift. The rest of the market stopped rallying when banks began struggling.... Read More
Two major themes are driving the S&P 500 index. AI/ChatGPT is powering mega-tech stocks higher. The rest of the stock market has been "stuck in the mud" since banks started failing in early March. These two themes are canceling each other out, leaving the overall S&P 500 with more of a sideways move than a trend up or down.... Read More
On this episode of On The Tape Dan & Danny they sit down with Jim Bianco of Bianco Research to discuss why the economy needs to restructure, bond market volatility and inflation, the debt ceiling and valuations.... Read More
There are still questions about the real x-date. Is it around June 1 or is it around late July?... Read More
Individuals and foreigners are chasing higher Treasury bill yields and buying record amounts. It confirms the trend of a "bank walk" out of low-yielding checking accounts.... Read More
The Fed has signaled they may be done hiking rates. What do market-based measures suggest?... Read More
As inflation remains at elevated levels, the correlation between stock and bond returns is a telling sign on investors' thinking.... Read More
