Markets
The FOMC Minutes
The FOMC Minutes
The market is still pricing in a 100% chance the Fed hikes to 1.50% to 1.75% at the March 21 meeting.... Read More
Tag Archives: Markets
Markets
Household Debt & Credit
Household Debt & Credit
Posted By Greg Blaha
Last week the Federal Reserve of New York released its quarterly report on household debt and credit. The interactive visualization below offers some of the more interesting charts from the update. Feel free to change timelines where offered and mouse... Read More
Markets
Crude Oil CTAs Remain Near Net Long Extreme
Crude Oil CTAs Remain Near Net Long Extreme
Crude Oil Large speculators (second panel) are near a net long extreme position, managed money (third panel) is still buying aggressively and the other reportables (bottom panel) are close to setting new records. These are contrarian sell signals. ... Read More
Markets
Currencies
Currencies
Readers of this report will note we have been highlighting the “over-speculated” nature of currencies over the past several months. This is another way of saying the dollar is too hated. The first chart below shows the euro. The net position... Read More
Markets
Negative Yielding Bonds
Negative Yielding Bonds
As the orange line below shows, negative-yielding debt has outpaced positive-yielding debt since the beginning of 2017 on a total return basis. The next chart shows the OAS (black), average maturity (brown) and average duration (red) of the negative-yielding bonds in... Read More
Markets
Market Capitalization As A Percentage Of GDP
Market Capitalization As A Percentage Of GDP
Bloomberg – U.S. GDP Grows Below-Forecast 2.6% on Trade, Inventory Drags The U.S. economy expanded at a slower-than-projected pace in the fourth quarter on drags from trade and inventories, offsetting strength in consumer spending and business investment that signals solid... Read More
Markets
What Drives The Yield Curve?
What Drives The Yield Curve?
Those looking for a steepening yield curve are betting on worsening economic data in 2018.... Read More
Markets
What’s Holding Back Productivity?
What’s Holding Back Productivity?
Posted By Jim Bianco
Summary In this webcast, we look at the poor productivity results in the United States and over ideas for why this is not a measurement problem by the result of deep structural problems within the United States. We break... Read More
Markets
The Case For Lower Rates?
The Case For Lower Rates?
Soft, survey-based data have provided quite the tailwind post-election. The chart below shows U.S. hard (blue) and soft (peach) data indices according to Citigroup. The bottoming in both indices in late August 2017 coincided with a rebound in FOMC rate... Read More
Markets
Thoughts On Q3 2017 Earnings Webcast
Thoughts On Q3 2017 Earnings Webcast
Posted By Jim Bianco
As Q3 earnings season comes to a close, we take stock of the results.... Read More
Markets
Thoughts On Q3 2017 Earnings Webcast
Thoughts On Q3 2017 Earnings Webcast
As Q3 earnings season comes to a close, we take stock of the results.... Read More
Markets
The Case For Lower Rates?
The Case For Lower Rates?
Soft, survey-based data have provided quite the tailwind post-election. The chart below shows U.S. hard (blue) and soft (peach) data indices according to Citigroup. The bottoming in both indices in late August 2017 coincided with a rebound in FOMC rate... Read More
Markets
The Myth Of Cash On The Sidelines
The Myth Of Cash On The Sidelines
Bloomberg Business – Corporate America Has Amassed a Record Amount of Cash Corporate America has never been in better shape to put its cash hoard to use on everything from investment to acquisitions, share buybacks and dividends. Or just hold... Read More
Markets
Another Chinese Crackdown on Bitcoin Exchanges
Another Chinese Crackdown on Bitcoin Exchanges
Posted By Peter Forbes
Bloomberg – China Is Said to Ban Bitcoin Exchanges While Allowing OTC Trades Order comes amid a broader clampdown on financial risk Bitcoin slumped on Friday after Caixin magazine reported China?s plans, capping the virtual currency?s biggest weekly retreat in nearly... Read More
Markets
The Long Boom
The Long Boom
July 1997 Wired Magazine (July 1997) The Long Boom: A History of the Future, 1980 ? 2020 We’re facing 25 years of prosperity, freedom, and a better environment for the whole world. You got a problem with that? By about 2005,... Read More
Markets
Is T-Mobile Setting Fed Policy?
Is T-Mobile Setting Fed Policy?
Posted By Greg Blaha
The Wall Street Journal – How Cell-Phone Plans With Unlimited Data Limited Inflation Economist traces almost half of the U.S. core-inflation slowdown this year to wireless services A slowdown in inflation over the last couple of months seems to be coming... Read More
Markets
Growing Influence of U.S. Shale in Global Oil Markets
Growing Influence of U.S. Shale in Global Oil Markets
Posted By Peter Forbes
Comment In our latest webinar, Peter Forbes discusses the growing influence of U.S. shale in global oil markets and OPEC. We will be providing similar media in the future to bring additional color to our analysis. Bloomberg – OPEC Expected to... Read More
Markets
A Bond Sentiment Update
A Bond Sentiment Update
See It Market (Blog) – Bond Market Sentiment Slides On Outlook Concerns This article looks at a unique market indicator that we?ve put together on the bond market. It provides a nice gauge of expectations for bonds in 2017 and... Read More
Markets
Bond Market Sentiment Update
Bond Market Sentiment Update
Barrons – Could Interest Rates Actually Move Lower? Interest rates on the long end of the curve haven?t really moved since November. The current sideways action seems to be a pause in a new rising trend, but recent action in... Read More
Markets
Bond Market Sentiment Update
Bond Market Sentiment Update
Bloomberg Business – Bond Market Storm Builds Behind Wall Street?s Serene Yield Call Consensus sees 10-year yield rising a mere 31 basis points For all the talk about the end of the bull market in bonds, the consensus on Wall Street... Read More