Readers of this report will note we have been highlighting the “over-speculated” nature of currencies over the past several months. This is another way of saying the dollar is too hated. The first chart below shows the euro. The net position... Read More
As the orange line below shows, negative-yielding debt has outpaced positive-yielding debt since the beginning of 2017 on a total return basis. The next chart shows the OAS (black), average maturity (brown) and average duration (red) of the negative-yielding bonds in... Read More
Bloomberg – U.S. GDP Grows Below-Forecast 2.6% on Trade, Inventory Drags The U.S. economy expanded at a slower-than-projected pace in the fourth quarter on drags from trade and inventories, offsetting strength in consumer spending and business investment that signals solid... Read More
Those looking for a steepening yield curve are betting on worsening economic data in 2018.... Read More
Summary In this webcast, we look at the poor productivity results in the United States and over ideas for why this is not a measurement problem by the result of deep structural problems within the United States. We break... Read More
Soft, survey-based data have provided quite the tailwind post-election. The chart below shows U.S. hard (blue) and soft (peach) data indices according to Citigroup. The bottoming in both indices in late August 2017 coincided with a rebound in FOMC rate... Read More
As Q3 earnings season comes to a close, we take stock of the results.... Read More
As Q3 earnings season comes to a close, we take stock of the results.... Read More
Soft, survey-based data have provided quite the tailwind post-election. The chart below shows U.S. hard (blue) and soft (peach) data indices according to Citigroup. The bottoming in both indices in late August 2017 coincided with a rebound in FOMC rate... Read More
Bloomberg Business – Corporate America Has Amassed a Record Amount of Cash Corporate America has never been in better shape to put its cash hoard to use on everything from investment to acquisitions, share buybacks and dividends. Or just hold... Read More
Bloomberg – China Is Said to Ban Bitcoin Exchanges While Allowing OTC Trades Order comes amid a broader clampdown on financial risk Bitcoin slumped on Friday after Caixin magazine reported China?s plans, capping the virtual currency?s biggest weekly retreat in nearly... Read More
July 1997 Wired Magazine (July 1997) The Long Boom: A History of the Future, 1980 ? 2020 We’re facing 25 years of prosperity, freedom, and a better environment for the whole world. You got a problem with that? By about 2005,... Read More
The Wall Street Journal – How Cell-Phone Plans With Unlimited Data Limited Inflation Economist traces almost half of the U.S. core-inflation slowdown this year to wireless services A slowdown in inflation over the last couple of months seems to be coming... Read More
Comment In our latest webinar, Peter Forbes discusses the growing influence of U.S. shale in global oil markets and OPEC. We will be providing similar media in the future to bring additional color to our analysis. Bloomberg – OPEC Expected to... Read More
See It Market (Blog) – Bond Market Sentiment Slides On Outlook Concerns This article looks at a unique market indicator that we?ve put together on the bond market. It provides a nice gauge of expectations for bonds in 2017 and... Read More
Barrons – Could Interest Rates Actually Move Lower? Interest rates on the long end of the curve haven?t really moved since November. The current sideways action seems to be a pause in a new rising trend, but recent action in... Read More
Bloomberg Business – Bond Market Storm Builds Behind Wall Street?s Serene Yield Call Consensus sees 10-year yield rising a mere 31 basis points For all the talk about the end of the bull market in bonds, the consensus on Wall Street... Read More
The Wall Street Journal – Selling Sweeps Global Government Bonds; U.S. 10-Year Yield Above 1.8% A fresh wave of selling swept government bonds in the developed world on Thursday, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note to... Read More
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – For Wall Street Bond Strategists, There?s Wrong and Less Wrong If at first you don?t succeed, revise, revise again. That?s become the mantra of Wall Street?s bond-market forecasters this year. Stephen... Read More
<Click on table for larger image> Bloomberg Business – Wall Street?s Bond Forecasters Splinter as Fed Credibility Wanes Bloomberg survey shows diverging views on U.S. economy, yields … Their conflicting views are emblematic of how little consensus there is over... Read More