Tag Archives: Markets

Markets

Surveys Continue to Expect Inflation, But When the Heck Will it Show Up?
Posted By Ben Breitholtz  |  Featured, Newsclips

Expectations for inflation in the U.S. are the highest post-crisis, but realized inflation has yet to show up. Many of these surveys have become coincidental-to-lagging indicators for prices and wages, making forecasting very difficult. Roughly 70% of the rise in U.S. 10-year note yields is attributable to hopes and dreams for inflation. But, bond investors will eventually shed their calm demeanor without expectations coming to fruition.... Read More

Markets

Zombie-Fever Abating with a Return to Lower Yields
Posted By Ben Breitholtz  |  Featured, Newsclips

Interest rate-sensitive industries have dramatically underperformed during this era of tightening Federal Reserve policy. Not surprisingly, these very industries possess the greatest proportion of near-zombie companies. A return to lower U.S. Treasury yields would avoid tumult and help these industries recover some losses. However, an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve without the tailwind of inflation and global economic growth could push some of these companies into the walking dead.... Read More

Markets

Bond Investors Remain Complacent, but Hopes for Inflation May Fade
Posted By Ben Breitholtz  |  Featured, Newsclips

The global economy is seemingly exhibiting growth dynamics akin to occurring late in a cycle. Investors in U.S. Treasuries have built in the largest inflation premiums since prior to the crisis. Inflation needs to 'put up or shut up' to avoid a return to lower yields. For the moment, the U.S. 10-year yield is the highest across major developed economies.... Read More