Macro products make up roughly 77% of the CBOE's volume.... Read More
As the Japanese government drove JGB rates to zero, volume all but disappeared.... Read More
Stock total returns since the 2016 election... Read More
A look at fixed income total returns since the election... Read More
Commodity total returns since the election... Read More
A long-term look at crude oil prices and U.S. field production... Read More
Another day, another survey extremely optimistic inflation and wages will rise in the near-term. Unfortunately, these very surveys detached from reality in the mid-1990s. U.S. 10-year note yields have chased these expectations higher, but bond investors are now in 'wait and see' mode. Inflation failing to rise will likely keep a cap on yields, meaning do not expect 10-years to break the much-discussed 3.0%.... Read More
Chinese tariffs on U.S. soybeans have put Brazilian exports in focus. Logistical constraints will limit the near-term upside, but the boost comes at a welcome time for emerging markets. ... Read More
10-Year speculators are near an extreme net short position.... Read More
Monday, April 2, 2018 Peter Forbes – Markets Paying Attention to Oil Prices Again Since the volatility event of early February, several major asset classes have shown stronger ties to oil prices. We see evidence that typically reliable relationships... Read More
Investors are sending flows to short-term U.S. treasuries while shedding equities at their greatest rate in history according to ETF flows. This 'flight-to-safety' is not similar to the 'risk-on/off' conditions very familiar to traders over the past decade.... Read More
The threat of zombie companies denting high yield corporates grows as interest rates rise. ... Read More
Converging economic growth and diverging realized inflation favor a stronger Canadian dollar and U.S. Treasury outperformance.... Read More
Today's topics include jobs and inflation, slowing Eurozone growth, the Venezuelan bolivar, tariffs' effect on jobs, Chinese selling of Treasuries and market timing.... Read More
Regime Shift The Most Inflation In The Post-Crisis Period Forecasting the eventual rebound in inflation has become increasingly difficult, just ask the Federal Reserve. On the contrary, the error in estimating... Read More
U.S. Treasury investors have built in a hefty premium for inflation, but are seemingly refusing to continue until inflation releases make a real push toward the Fed’s target of 2.0%. March 21, 2018 The chart below shows the spread... Read More
Rotation into defensive sectors is likely to benefit healthcare, especially in emerging markets. ... Read More