WEEKLY DIGEST – THIS WEEK’S TOP POSTS Balance Sheet Reduction Ramps Up The Fed will increase the monthly total of Treasury proceeds withheld from reinvestment to $24 billion this month. August will mark the end of reliable monthly Treasury reinvestment... Read More
The volatility of inflation expectations has reached the lowest in recorded history, just ahead of a slew of inflation releases (AHE, PPI, and CPI). However bond investors will continue to see little excitement until pricing in headline inflation above 2.5% year-over-year for the years to come.... Read More
Strong performance is drawing ETF investors into small caps and utilities. ... Read More
Slowing G10 economic growth, not tariffs or trade war risks, have pushed investors out of emerging markets and commodities. Latin America, namely Brazil, remains a bright spot with above-average economic data changes.... Read More
The diminishing utility of economic surveys has been a major theme of ours lately. Dire warnings of depressed purchasing managers should be viewed in the same skeptical light. ... Read More
Today's topics include central bank accommodation, S&P turnover, Chinese consumer spending, high yield debt, banking compensation, M&A activity, Greenlight's struggles, artificial intelligence, politics & investing, crypto manipulation and sentiment during financial crises.... Read More
Nearly all asset classes are losing their connection to what has been ultra-rosy consumer and business outlooks since late 2016. Central bank actions, namely the ECB, remain key drivers and a reflection of realized economic growth. In other words, a continuation of elevated soft, survey data will be of no help to asset returns.... Read More
Losses in grain markets are getting worse and political pressures mounting with it. The farm belt is likely to remain in the spotlight through November's midterm elections. ... Read More
ETF fees continue lower as competition for investors' money heats up.... Read More
Sentiment remains ultra-rosy in the U.S., but slowing economic growth in the Eurozone, rising trade policy uncertainty, and deteriorating Google search trends suggest a moderation is coming.... Read More
A detailed look at the interest rate contracts in the CoT report.... Read More
Charts that are near extremes and the most popular contracts that caught our eye this week.... Read More
Less than 50% of the world's economies are producing above-average economic data changes, raising the prospect of risk-off conditions. Long-end U.S. Treasuries remain favorable, while emerging markets and commodities continue to stumble.... Read More
WTI's punch above $70 is not yet expected to harm the consumer or economy. We use the relationship between realized inflation and consumer expectations to determine this pain threshold.... Read More
The drop in the yuan has triggered another round of selling in emerging markets. Slowing growth is a real concern but Latin American emerging markets remain in a position to outperform their southeast Asian peers. ... Read More
Household debt and credit is broken down by auto loans, credit cards, HELOCs, student loans and mortgages.... Read More
Credit card companies are extending more credit in the U.S., but consumers are being more prudent in their use of credit cards.... Read More
Since the housing crash, mortgage originators have lent far less money to people with the riskiest credit scores.... Read More
Outflows from gold ETFs have persisted since our last update.... Read More
