Potential for Slowing Capex We prefer to watch Google search trends from across the globe for major capital expenditures instead of lagging and intermittent surveys. The chart below shows six-month changes in these searches slowing into the summer of 2018.... Read More
Bloomberg.com ? Jim Bianco: The $1 Trillion Market Cap Race Is a Zero Sum Game The stock market values of a few technology companies are increasing at the expense of legacy businesses. Many on Wall Street joke that if Amazon sets its sights... Read More
Tariffs Factset reports the number of mentions of ?tariffs? in earnings calls: Of these 159 companies, 70 (or 44%) cited the term ?tariff? during the call. This number is above the numbers for the previous four quarters... Read More
Rising correlation of both asset returns and volatility are concerning for the purposes of seeking diversification. Namely, the volatility of U.S. Treasuries and inflation expectations are reconnecting to the majority of asset classes.... Read More
Slowing search trends for consumer items and services suggest personal spending will struggle to rebound into year-end. Economists have again become more certain in a moderate pace of growth, helping keep U.S. Treasury term premium and real yields from pressing higher.... Read More
Corporate default rates are low and expected to fall further. But debt to pretax profit ratios remain elevated, especially in energy, manufacturing, and utilities. Income growth will be critical for high yield performance. ... Read More
Our top posts from the week of July 24. ... Read More
The regional growth and inflation outlook is weakening for Australia. ... Read More
U.S. high yield's (OAS) trading range in 2018 from 311 to 372 bps has increased potential to see an upside breakout. Key influences indicate widening of ~65 bps into year-end.... Read More
Stock and bond market seasonality may offer hope to those in search of a bit more volatility.... Read More
The U.S. natural gas industry gets another break in the trade war. ... Read More
Today's topics include the ECB meeting, BOJ policy, stock and bond fund flows, capital expenditures, quant funds, the Fed & the yield curve and tariffs' effect on earnings.... Read More
It looks like the rotation into non cyclical sector ETFs might be over for U.S. equities.... Read More
Most who follow the Treasury's International Capital report are aware that China and Japan are easily the largest holders of U.S. Treasuries. However, the Euro Area is quickly gaining on them.... Read More
While Chinese capital is still leaving the country, government regulations have helped stem the outflows.... Read More
Latin America remains positioned to outperform among emerging market economies but Brazil faces significant headwinds as it heads toward an October election.... Read More
A detailed look at interest rates. 5-Year large specs at a new net short extreme position. ... Read More