Large speculators are at a net short extreme position in the 10-Year Treasury. ... Read More
A look at some extreme and popular charts from the latest CoT data. ... Read More
The retail industry has enjoyed a sizable rebound over the past three months on the heels of improved U.S. economic growth. Transportation industries have also stood-out, but we fear over-heating interest in shipping and cargo may signal an overshoot.... Read More
Australia is leading improvements in economic growth in the Asia Pacific region ex-China. Business search trends still show few signs of improvement, but a positive outcome from rekindled trade talks with the U.S. could be a catalyst. ... Read More
Since the housing crash, mortgage originators have lent far less money to people with the riskiest credit scores.... Read More
Household debt broken down by delinquency status... Read More
Only 42% of major economies are producing inflation above expectations.... Read More
A look at flows into health care ETFs... Read More
A great showdown is underway between investors and the Federal Reserve over the path of inflation. Markets are solidifying their belief headline inflation can not run above 2.5% year-over-year for the years to come, much to the dismay of Federal Reserve officials. U.S. 10-year yields and TIPS breakevens look capped for the foreseeable future.... Read More
The housing market is looking increasingly shaky. Search interest in home financing has fallen to its lowest level since July 2015. ... Read More
Gold is declining after very favorable influences have driven the U.S. dollar higher. U.S. economic growth, inflation, and sovereign yields are top dog among developed economies, which makes the U.S. dollar the safe haven of choice. Gold does not rally with financial stress, but when the U.S. dollar becomes unattractive.... Read More
Expectations for retail sales gains in 2018 are high and rising but outperformance is narrowly concentrated in a small slice of retail equities. U.S. search trends point to travel & recreation and home improvement as the two areas likely to sustain solid returns. ... Read More
Turkey woes are failing to show signs of contagion or elevating global risk. Opportunities will likely exist when systemic risk premiums eventually subside.... Read More
Soybean farmers face a dual threat of lost export demand and a record crop. But the political danger for Republicans may have passed as search interest in tariffs has shifted away from agriculturally focused swing states.... Read More
Our top posts from the week of August 6, 2018. ... Read More
Large speculators are at a net short extreme position in the 10-Year Treasury. ... Read More
U.K. residents are seeing some relief from high temperatures but the heat wave has had a real impact on consumers. Efforts to beat the heat accompanied a rebound in search traffic related to the energy sector. The outlook for U.K. equities is getting brighter. ... Read More
Today's topics include Charlie Evans, big data, Japanese Bond trading, the crisis in Turkey, currency and local stock market correlations, growth expectations, Chinese bonds. currency market volatility, corporate bonds, home prices, the trade war, why macroeconomics is hard, what worries investors and a new online prediction market. ... Read More
