The future was looking brighter for brick and mortar retail, but cracks are beginning to appear.... Read More
With February's spike in volatility a distant memory, speculators have returned to their favorite trade - shorting the VIX.... Read More
An interactive chart showing long-term interest rates. ... Read More
Being an economist in the U.S. these days is tough business with ultra-low volatility across economic data releases and a transparent Federal Reserve. If you are wondering why investors are so bored, the answer is U.S. hard economic data's volatility plumbing its lowest since September 1995. Past occasions have seen the S&P 500 go on to produce low volatile, positive returns.... Read More
Google search trends suggest the U.S. housing market continues to soften. Home improvement retail is likely to remain a bright spot in an otherwise dark housing-related investing landscape. ... Read More
A lack of rebound in inflation expectations would mean the Fed is 'going it alone' with more hikes in 2019. The de facto Fed chair has been inflation expectations in 2017 and 2018. Will the great showdown between markets and the Fed take place or will one side finally have to give?... Read More
WEEKLY DIGEST – THIS WEEK’S TOP POSTS Here Comes a Positive Real Fed Funds Target Rate! Two more hikes by the Federal Reserve will push the real fed funds target rate positive for the first time post-crisis. Tightening to... Read More
Large speculators bounce off the net short extreme position in the 10-Year Treasury reached a few weeks ago. ... Read More
A look at some of the extreme and popular charts from the latest CoT report. ... Read More
The U.S. 10-year note's ultra-tight trading range coupled with a flattening yield curve is a recipe for higher dispersion and equity underperformance relative to U.S. Treasuries.... Read More
Two more hikes by the Federal Reserve will push the real fed funds target rate positive for the first time post-crisis. Tightening to the order of 200+ bps according to the real fed funds target rate, which we could achieve by December 2018, has been needed to create inversion of the heavily watched U.S. 3-month 10-year spread.... Read More
Tariff talk is on the rise in corporate earnings calls, mostly among companies in the industrials and consumer discretionary sectors.... Read More
We have always warned against placing too much emphasis on seasonal adages such as ?Sell in May and go away.? However, the month of September tends to be a quirky month for many assets on a seasonal basis and is worth examination.... Read More
Earlier this month we highlighted a strong GDP beat as teeing up an October rate hike for the Bank of Canada. With another GDP release due tomorrow, the Canadian economy still appears to be cruising.... Read More
A comparison of various types of debt to GDP... Read More
The number of students majoring in the humanities at U.S. universities is declining at a rapid rate.... Read More
The divergence between yield curve positioning by ETFs (flatter) and futures (steeper) is nearing an extreme favoring a steeper real yield curve. Additionally, seasonals and and potential for dampening FOMC rate hike timing suggest real and nominal 2-year 10-year spreads should converge.... Read More
Emerging market equities' ties to the dollar are at their strongest since August 2016. We still see modest downside risks for the dollar and potential tailwinds for some emerging market sectors.... Read More
Today's topics include rising consumer confidence, yield curves and recessions, the stock market, the "fast star", the market vs the Fed, volatility, the U.S. dollar, secular stagnation, corporate debt and the stock market vs pundits. ... Read More
Trade-related growth concerns have tightened the ties between industrial metals and risk markets. U.S. high yield bonds and both developed and emerging market equities are likely to tag along if metals rebound. ... Read More