Yesterday's PPI and today's CPI releases both showed pockets of weakness, but nothing that will register on the Federal Reserve's longer-term focus.... Read More
The strong belief that inflation is returning is driving Fed policy. They are not waiting for the actual data to hit their targets and are moving ahead without it. They better be correct as this is how mistakes are made.... Read More
The narrative for a continued rise in U.S. 10-year note yields remains inflation, meaning plenty of investors are not left confused over the past two weeks. ... Read More
The connection has broken between sentiment and wage gains. Technology-heavy metros continue to attract the lion's share of recruitment and better salaries. The outlook is not yet very rosy, even given full employment.... Read More
In the past the Fed has pointed to prices in cell phone services as one reason for subdued inflation. This anomaly has now largely rolled off the year-over-year figures, so the Fed should be afforded a clearer picture moving forward.... Read More
Investors are finally becoming believers in the Federal Reserve's faith inflation will rebound given full employment. Surveys are confirming these hopes, but we have yet to see realized inflation make a charge higher. Roughly 70% of the rise in U.S. 10-year note yields since September 2017 can be attributed to these surveys and Federal Reserve expectations for inflation.... Read More
Investors have turned sour on longer-end TIPS breakevens over the past week. However the dynamics of rising energy prices and economic data appear top-heavy, suggesting short-term TIPS breakevens may be the under-performer moving forward.... Read More
Gold is showing its tightest ties to the dollar in years. Ongoing trade disputes would be bullish for gold if they continue to push the dollar lower. ... Read More
Financial markets are betting core inflation will rise toward the Fed's target and substantiate U.S. Treasury yields, leaving other developed economies behind. Inflation expectations (i.e. TIPS breakevens) are steering the ship and a sign of investors' new found hope.... Read More
With rates on the rise, we update our annual look at market performance under several inflation/deflation scenarios.... Read More
There are two ways to look at inflation - actual inflation, which is a backward-looking measure of what actually happened, and inflation expectations, a forward-looking measure of what the market expects to happen.... Read More