Until fiscal stimulus is proven to have a consequence, such as higher bond yields from higher inflation expectations, we should expect widening deficits.... Read More
The effects of the lockdowns and subsequent re-openings are readily apparent in the flexible components of core CPI.... Read More
The combination of an economic contraction reducing the supply of goods and massive fiscal and monetary stimulus supporting demand for goods should produce inflation. This should especially be the case after April 2021 when the year-over-year changes exclude the lock-down period.... Read More
A look at the subcomponents of CPI and their contribution to the year-over-year headline number... Read More
Which components of CPI have increased or decreased the most over the past decade?... Read More
Which components of CPI have increased or decreased the most over the past decade?... Read More
Which components of CPI have increased the most over the past decade?... Read More
Core sticky CPI continues its march higher, while the flexible components of core CPI are essentially unchanged over the past year.... Read More
Those waiting for reflation to spur inflation and lead to a fall in the dollar have been frustrated and losing money for years. The problem is they are waiting for a return of the 1980s/early 1990s. That era is over with the adoption of technology that has fundamentally changed how businesses operate.... Read More
Core sticky CPI recently hit its highest level since November 2008.... Read More
Developed country inflation rates are low, with the U.S. and Canada among the highest.... Read More
Which components of CPI have increased the most over the past decade?... Read More
While the global slowdown and recession fears are likely part of the reason traders are demanding rate cuts, it is worth noting the markets began pricing this in many months ago. In this light, falling inflation expectations may be the true driver of the call for rate cuts.... Read More
Jim's latest Bloomberg column explains why the market is pricing in a cut while few economists or Fed officials are in favor of one.... Read More
It is reasonable to assume hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs would create some inflation. However, market-based measures of inflation expectations are suggesting tariffs will have virtually no effect.... Read More
The stock and bond markets are telling two different tales on the economy. How does this situation resolve itself?... Read More
Our Bloomberg column on the Fed's inability to control inflation.... Read More
The market is still not pricing in a hike this year, but crude oil's rise has the potential to change the Fed's outlook.... Read More
Yesterday's PPI and today's CPI releases both showed pockets of weakness, but nothing that will register on the Federal Reserve's longer-term focus.... Read More
The strong belief that inflation is returning is driving Fed policy. They are not waiting for the actual data to hit their targets and are moving ahead without it. They better be correct as this is how mistakes are made.... Read More