Today's topics include estimating t-bill issuance in light of debt ceiling, yields & stocks, when will QT end?, big banks settle SEC probe on low-paying sweep accounts, how will the dollar perform in 2025?, and grocery prices on the rise... Read More
Today's topics include discussing the dollar in 2025, 2024 ETF flows blow out record, Goolsbee changes tone toward a patient approach, 6% yields?, mortgage rates stay elevated, powering China's economy through stimulus, details on Scott Bessent's hearing for Treasury secretary, and pension funds utilizing crypto... Read More
Today's topics include more on yesterday's inflation release, CPI was 0.002% away from rounding to 3.3% yesterday, uncertainty is the Fedspeak word of the day, another way to show stocks are overpriced, a shameless plug for active bond funds, the housing market, and BoJ set to hike rates... Read More
Today's topics include looking back at what caused pandemic inflation surge, is a hike in the cards?, revisiting deglobalization, concentration risk, ECB will ease further as Eurozone growth slows, more Chinese liquidity injections, weather leads to declining oil supply, the worsening deficit, Goldman's Solomon cautious on economy, and more on Nvidia... Read More
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's CPI report, stocks might be extra sensitive to tomorrow's CPI release, economists expect global inflation to persist, the days of lower rates are behind us, is a 5% ten-year yield a line in the sand?, the end to QT draws near, and small cap stocks don't like higher rates... Read More
Today's topics include explaining rising yields, the fiscal outlook, an eye on funding spreads, more on the labor market, Fed independence, the oil market, Europe's natural gas storages, a look back at Bitcoin ETFs' first year, and return to office pushback... Read More
Today's topics include stocks versus higher yields, what's ahead for QT?, Fedspeak...lots of it, why are long-term yields rising?, corporate issuance stays hot, the trouble of funding governments with higher rates, mortgage rates & the housing market, the wrong type of rental supply, Nvidia: the most influential piece of everyone's portfolio, yen intervention?, and a unique solution to the housing market's problems... Read More
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's payrolls report, why are rates going up?, a reminder that stocks can actually go down, irrational exuberance, time for the 40/60 portfolio?, FOMC minutes confirm market pricing on pause, the next FOMC chair, the UK in bond vigilantes' crosshairs, further debunking of the January indicator, and Bitcoin ETF outflows... Read More
Today's topics include bond yields break out towards 5%, are rates too high?, stocks & bonds, UK borrowing costs, more on the dollar, crude gains as harsher winter hits stockpiles, the struggle of active managers to beat equity benchmarks, housing market, and China's currency weakens further... Read More
Today's topics include what I learned in my first year managing fixed income, bonds offer a yield again, TIPS vs. treasuries, European natural gas storage, Fedspeak, Barr to step down as Fed vice chair, the idea of permanently doing away with debt ceiling, stock market breadth, and bankruptcies on the rise... Read More
Today's topics include what rates mean to stocks, be careful with seasonality data, central banks expect to continue cutting rates in 2025, Fedspeak, the Fed's communication breakdown, cracks in the labor market, how high can profit margins go?, Bernanke weighs in on Trumponomics, the U.S. vs. the rest of the world, and free markets need creative destruction... Read More
Today's topics include high current returns bring lower future returns..., ...but time in the market matters more than market timing, immigration's effect on the labor market, productivity, how to lower the deficit, bank reserves at year-end, the first or last week of the year doesn't matter more than any other week, target date funds shaping investment allocations, and bitcoin ETF flows... Read More
Updating the world's richest people to end 2024... Read More
Today's topics include mapping 2025 S&P 500 expectations & reality, a macro view of China's larger problems, explaining the dollar rally post-Fed, when do the mega retailers also become too big to fail?, bond market drawdowns, retail drives up interest in event contracts as new asset class, the surge of 0dte options, more on massive Chinese liquidity injection, the state of the housing market, no more Russian natural gas to Europe, and how far can gold go?... Read More
Today's topics include a record equity rally, the year in bonds, bond dealers & growing U.S. debt, a concentrated market, growth across the pond, the mighty dollar, and adding liquidity in China... Read More
Today's topics include a debt ceiling timeline, a communication breakdown, getting to know the new Fed voters, questions for the Fed's 5-year policy review, a new acronym to show high market concentration, ETF inflows, cocoa prices, and credit card defaults... Read More
Today's topics include the dollar & debt, the Fed & politics, equity inflows, repo rates, thoughts on diversification given current market concentration, Japanese stocks looking to end year above bubble peak, and strong holiday season... Read More
Today's topics include different opinions among Fed officials, a rules-based Federal Reserve, another metric that points to low future returns, maybe a productivity boom could keep the economy humming along?, exorbitant privilege is not forever, federal spending vs. income, consumer debt now that stimulus has run its course, and the biggest inflows in 2024... Read More
Today's topics include broad agreement on yields, good debt vs. bad debt is all about risk management, handling year-end liquidity concerns, the big four accounted for 44% of banking profits in 2024, the rising costs of insurance & property taxes, an eye on leveraged loans, and profiling Bitcoin's holders... Read More
Today's topics include data dependency & policy confusion, Fed policy in 2025, breaking down the U.S. consumer by income, the Fed's reverse repo facility, a different take on U.S. fiscal policy, more on stock market sentiment, Elon coming for the Fed, the BoJ cannot hold the line forever, and the idea of a Bitcoin reserve... Read More