Today's topics include two roads diverge..., Wall Street sends more bullish signals, gold continues to climb, UK long rates, outlier Mag 7 S&P 500 high, China's equity rally, comments on Fed independence. and household energy costs ... Read More
Today's topics include Cook 'didn't mean to deceive anyone' & 'no one was harmed', Waller wants to cut rates, will Fed independence impact bond yields?, Miran to vote on September 18?, inflation, foreign stock markets, tariff update, and the VIX.... Read More
Today's topics include everyone has an opinion on Lisa Cook's firing..., ...except the markets, Dudley has some thoughts on the Fed's monetary policy framework, higher order exposures, small caps' time to shine?, Nvidia's earnings, some perspective on the decline in mortgage rates, and credit spreads at tightest since 2007.... Read More
Today's topics include the Supreme Court will likely have to define "for cause", Brainard voices her concerns over Cook's firing, Claudia Sahm has some ideas on safeguarding Fed independence, tariffs hitting small firms worse than large firms, breaking down wage growth, the government coming for an equity stake in defense contractors?, and Japanese inflation outpaces U.S. inflation for the first time in 48 years.... Read More
Today's topics include to cut or not to cut, where should rates trade?, the Fed updates its policy on inflation targeting, could demographics support 250% debt to GDP?, CBO raises its estimate of tariff revenue, wealth by generation, and stablecoins & politics.... Read More
Today's topics include the Jackson Hole schedule, what should Powell say?, why all the Cook drama?, balancing the Fed's dual mandate, U.S. travel, and AI coming for stock pickers... Read More
Today's topics include the FOMC minutes show officials still worried about inflation, the politics behind the accusations against Lisa Cook, previewing Jackson Hole, the relationship between deficits & GDP growth, the big mac index, a dark horse for Powell's replacement?, yields on the rise, and buy the momentum dip... Read More
Today's topics include lower short rates do not guarantee lower long rates, what to look for in today's Fed minutes, a new era of fiscal dominance, the latest tariff headlines, more on Bessent's "models", foreign-born vs. native-born labor market, and stablecoins could be another source of demand for T-bills... Read More
Today's topics include more "wait & see" at Jackson Hole?, ranking countries' inflation problems, explaining divergent retail sales & jobs data, global yields on the rise, stock market concentration, S&P sees tariff revenue offsetting fiscal problems, and companies relying on crypto Treasuries as a business model.... Read More
Today's topics include central banks only control the short end of the curve, stock market concentration, credit spreads at generational tights, Jackson Hole, overreliance on fiscal & monetary support, the odds of a September rate cut, T-bill supply & demand, Fedspeak, and bond market volatility disappears... Read More
Today's topics include more names in the ring for Fed chair, FOMC members finally debating policy, Palantir's crazy 2025 return, characteristics of an asset bubble, momentum investing still hot, margin pressure, and don't forget about small tech... Read More
Respondents to the University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey raised their expected rate of long-term inflation 0.5% this month. That is almost unprecedented.... Read More
Today's topics include was Bessent correct?, Bessent sees six or seven rate cuts, Powell's worst case scenario?, shipping slowdown, Fedspeak, volatility continues lower, equity allocations, the cardboard box indicator, stocks climbing a wall of worry, and questioning AI spending... Read More
Today's topics include more on yesterday's CPI release, give an inch & they'll take a mile, the different ways of calculating tariffs, Fedspeak, Dudley shoots down idea that shrinking balance sheet could set table for rate cuts, strong balance sheet stocks post third weekly outperformance, modernizing government data collection, E.J. Antoni's credentials, the latest on Chinese trade negotiations, credit spreads narrow as government finances deteriorate, and buying vs. renting... Read More
Today's topics include an interview with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, extending China trade talks, new BLS nominee, stagflation concerns, more on the Nvidia revenue deal with White House, little recession talk, and financial regulation: how to decipher what's necessary & what's not... Read More
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's CPI report, Trump getting interested in the stock market, debating immigration's impact on labor market, could Miran bring more dissents to FOMC meetings?, timing the rate cuts, overhauling the BLS, who will pay for tariffs?, AI winners & losers, and housing supply & demand... Read More
Today's topics include Miran to gain a second job & fill Kugler's seat on FOMC, is Waller still a top pick?, stock market concentration, U.S. vs international stocks, taking a hands-on approach to domestic multinational companies, tariff income, more on BLS data, and tokenization timeline... Read More
Today's topics include talkin' about the proper level for interest rates & the labor market, Fed officials ready to join the rate-cutting camp?, more detail on the possibility of an interim Fed governor, updating the candidates' odds for next FOMC chair, tariffs take effect, who will pay for these tariffs?, ranking the risks to bond returns, T-bill issuance continues to rise, and student loan delinquencies... Read More
Today's topics include Trump to name new Fed governor this week, Paulson & Geithner voice concern over U.S. fiscal outlook, still waiting to assess impact of tariffs, more on updating government data collection, data integrity crucial to TIPS market, checking in on stock market sentiment, tech earnings, and another gold arbitrage... Read More
Today's topics include retail trading, more on data collection after the BLS commissioner's firing, more on population growth, Dudley on the two dissents at the last FOMC meeting, the market's reliance on AI & Nvidia, reorienting the Fed's dual mandate toward productivity, Treasury returns, insider selling, trend-following strategies suffer, and spot crypto trading coming to an exchange near you... Read More