Today's topics include the Fed vs. the markets, yesterday's strong PMI data, liquidity concerns, concerns over corporate profits, bullish tech sentiment, junk spreads as a contrarian indicator, and China losing ground to India.... Read More
Today's topics include Powell's 60 Minutes interview, Fed officials weigh in on rate cuts, the OECD weighs in on rate cuts, the last mile in the battle against inflation, big swings in yields, questioning Shiller's Cape valuation measure, the Mag Seven's earnings, and the BoJ ready to say goodbye to negative rates?... Read More
Today's topics include what's happening in commercial real estate?, El-Erian says Fed has a messaging problem, money market funds cross the $6t mark, deciphering what's ahead for markets, dot-com era comparison getting stronger, regional bank concerns, finding solutions to Red Sea shipping issues, bond market drawdown, and AI & market efficiency.... Read More
Today's topics include Jim discusses the FOMC meeting & inflation, what does a strong labor market really mean?, previewing tomorrow's payroll report, understanding Fedspeak, post FOMC reactions, TIPS as an inflation hedge, what happened with New York Community Bank?, you get debt & you get debt!, and a new made-up way to transfer risk... Read More
Today's topics include timing the rate cuts, rates tend to fall around FOMC days, the Treasury's refunding announcement, the health of the labor market, will additional supply keep oil prices under $100 forever?, U.S. stocks vs. the rest of the world, housing price gains slowing, commercial real estate outlook not getting any better, and Evergande collapse isn't the end of China's problems... Read More
Today's topics include FOMC meeting takes back seat to the Treasury's borrowing plans, tomorrow's FOMC meeting is all about QT, inflation & Fed forecasts, the Mag Seven is not a homogenous entity..., ...but the stock market remains highly concentrated, an update on the Red Sea's shipping issues, fewer workers quitting, and mentions of war on the rise ... Read More
Today's topics include Fed to take next step toward cutting rates, inflation expectations, El-Erian raises concerns over debt, uncertainty in the bond market, previewing this week's Treasury issuance announcement, investment grade bonds, the latest on Red Sea attacks, Cathie Wood defends Ark, and a Bitcoin carry trade... Read More
Today's topics include higher liquidity in 2024?, more on the end of the BTFP retirees' ownership of the stock market, renting is expensive, China promises more stimulus, Waller responds to team transitory's claim to victory, debating the Beveridge curve, and global credit spreads tightest in two years... Read More
Today's topics include equity markets face headwinds, another look at QT, Fed kills BTFP arbitrage opportunity, the disinflation narrative, anticipating the next Fed move, length of yield curve inversions, the Fed in election years, CRE exposure, banks still pushing for return-to-office, comparing equity markets around the world, and is Chinese easing enough?... Read More
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's GDP release, China attempts to stop the bleeding, the last mile of inflation, just in time inventory, the Euro turns 25 this month, a quiet stock market, more on credit card debt, and shorter settlement times coming... Read More
Today's topics include the untroubled investor, the BoJ keeps policy stance steady, modern leverage risks, trouble in China, momentum trader positioning, and criticisms of passive investing... Read More
Today's topics include timing the first rate cut, labor market's role in the battle against inflation, sticky inflation, an eye on liquidity, the yield curve, where do stocks go after new all-time high?, different ways to view the Mag seven's dominance, small cap stocks, updating the Red Sea's shipping disruption, measuring consumer health, and corporate debt issuance... Read More
Today's topics include regulators prepare banks to tap Fed's discount window, interpreting a steeper yield curve, active vs. passive funds, over half of low-income Americans are 'rent-burdened', El-Erian sees first rate cuts in summer, consumer sentiment is improving, options strategies in a higher rate environment, and updating global shipping concerns... Read More
Today's topics include cash on the sidelines, warnings on rate cut expectations, consumer spending, the relationship between rates & stocks, an eye on hiring trends, investors remain doubtful of official Chinese data, and currency interventions... Read More
Today's topics include sizing & timing the rate cuts, the markets vs. the Fed, don't declare victory against inflation just yet, the case for yields to remain high, Dudley on QT, liquidity concerns, commercial loan delinquencies, and an update on the Bitcoin ETFs... Read More
Today's topics include the beginning of the end for QT, updating rate cut expectations in the U.S. & Europe, rate cuts & earnings, the rising correlation between stock & bond returns, monitoring whales for market advantages, an eye on fiscal policy, putting some costs on shipping problems, the effects of demographics, where's the recession?, and vacant office buildings... Read More
Today's topics include more on inflation, stocks for the long run, Sahm says don't sweat the debt, Red Sea attacks are affecting the supply chain, the Fed's Bank Term Funding Program, an eye on credit card utilization & delinquency rates, El-Erian on 2024 economy, and day one trading for spot Bitcoin ETFs... Read More
Today's topics include bond market volatility & the inverted yield curve, shipping costs, median CPI differs from other measures, the inflation fight, renting vs. owning, natural gas demand, the value of cash with a yield, EM issuance hits record, monitoring global trade shocks, and SEC approves Bitcoin ETFs (for real this time)... Read More
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's CPI report, more on shipping problems, Howard Marks on the bygone QE era, the Bank Term Funding Program is no longer serving its purpose, government debt problems have not disappeared, rising consumer debt, and the Bitcoin ETF fee war continues... Read More
Today's topics include looking ahead, buy the rumor sell the news on spot Bitcoin ETF?, an eye on wages, Bowman becomes more dovish, Bill Gross sees bonds as overvalued, continued concerns over government debt levels, the BoJ eases its bond purchases, 170 years of sentiment analysis, rents fall for third straight month, and non-performing loans could hurt big banks this earnings season ... Read More