Today's topics include no jobs data in the event of a shutdown, the economy relies on the consumer, Treasury buyers, doing away with the fed funds rate, the cost of energy in the U.S., credit market conditions, and Fedspeak ... Read More
Today's topics include will the government shut down tomorrow night?, scrutinizing Miran's change of heart on the neutral rate, Supreme Court responds to Cook, Barkin mentions high degree of uncertainty, the race for Fed chair, the Fed's balance sheet, comparing global financial asset growth, narrow corporate spreads, and blockchain coming to the SWIFT payment system... Read More
Today's topics include Miran's case for speedy cuts, AI-related stocks dominate S&P 500 returns, if AI were a bubble..., loaded up on stocks, watching for liquidity issues, more tariff news, slowdown? what slowdown?, and is it time to replace the fed funds rate? ... Read More
Today's topics include Goolsbee joins hawks pushing against further rate cuts..., ...While Bowman & Daly set the tone for the doves, Bessent leans on Powell again, El-Erian on Miran's role in Fed, searching for signs of strain in funding markets as quarter-end approaches, the Chicago Fed offers a new labor market indicator, is this the type of thing you hear near a top?, cutting rates with stocks near all-time highs, U.S. stocks vs. global stocks, and when crypto is not DeFi... Read More
Today's topics include more commentary on Miran's policy perspective, a calm equity rally since April, more details on the breakeven jobs rate, bubble risk (not yet), S&P 500 concentration, Swiss central bank rate, the Fed can't fix the housing market, and auto delinquency concerns after Tricolor's bust... Read More
Today's topics include hawkish Fed officials pushing back against additional cuts..., ...and then there is Miran, watching for signs of liquidity drying up, the OECD updates its growth & tariff estimates, cash on the sidelines, quantifying the impact of AI on S&P 500 companies, and the cost of the American dream... Read More
Today's topics include how many rate cuts?, the Fed's dual mandate is under pressure, BofA takes a guess on naming the Fed's dots, there are many different ways to measure inflation, the Fed's focus on the labor market, some perspective on AI spending, the dollar's tough year, buying the belly of the curve, Meredith Whitney on the housing market, and the return to the office remains stalled... Read More
Today's topics include will there be more cuts in 2025?, earnings expectations, leading indicators are not working, margin debt levels, mag 7 bubble, foreign Treasury holdings, record corporate spreads, a shift in Japanese central bank policy, and AI & young employment... Read More
Today's topics include dissecting the Fed's latest dot plots, post-Fed op-eds, Miran's dissent accomplished at least one thing, Fed cuts don't ensure lower 10-year yields, understanding Fedspeak, an eye on funding markets as quarter-end approaches, any variation on the Taylor rule suggests rates are too low, a K-shaped economy, what drives mortgage rates?, and tech outperformance over past decade reflects earnings outperformance... Read More
Today's topics include Jim talks today's Fed meeting, can the Fed stimulate the housing market?, rebuilding the TGA, consumer spending, where does gold fit in a portfolio?, more on hedged foreign investors, and the U.S. will receive 15% of not much... Read More
Today's topics include Miran set to vote in FOMC meeting after senate confirmation, Lisa Cook also gets a vote (barring a last-minute hail Mary to supreme court), more on Fed dissents, Bullard talks about his interview for Fed chair, how much job growth is needed each month?, high valuations are not just a tech problem, foreigners hedging against the dollar, the idea of moving away from quarterly earnings, an eye on the Fed's standing repo facility, and money market funds... Read More
Today's topics include Wednesday's FOMC meeting is all about dots & dissents, FOMC expectations after this meeting, how volatile might FOMC day be?, the latest on Lisa Cook, getting to know Stephen Miran, what happens after rate cuts resume?, here we go again with ARK, gold's best year since 1979, and stock market records led to more government income in 2024... Read More
Today's topics include more on yesterday's CPI release, rate cuts after September depend on labor market, Trump attempts to block Lisa Cook from FOMC meeting, more on Bessent's claim of mission creep at the Fed, gold's rally, global fiscal issues, small caps outperform S&P 500 since end of July, and a history of the dollar... Read More
Today's topics include tariffs & the economy, the state of the equity rally, Ellison takes richest person crown from Musk, a subprime blowup, strong 10-year treasury auction, return-to-office, and China ditching dollar reserves... Read More
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's CPI report, Cook to remain a governor for now, Miran's nomination could affect the Fed's summary of economic projections, Bessent takes aim at the Fed, QCEW revisions, labor market supply & demand, real wages stagnate, regional banks outperforming broad financial sector since April, and central banks' gold holdings... Read More
Today's topics include today's preliminary benchmark revision, a bond bull market, Trump continues his battle against the BLS, Dems demand Miran resigns as Chief Economic Advisor to be named to Fed board, the bull case for stocks, the oil industry reins in spending, a call to move to biannual earnings reports, and French yields converge with Italian yields... Read More
Today's topics include talkin' markets, tomorrow the BLS releases its estimate for annual benchmark revisions to payrolls, the case against rate cuts, checking in on recession indicators, bond market vigilantes, everyone has an opinion on Fed independence, who wants to be the next Fed chair?, and gold's rise continues... Read More
Today's topics include Miran seems likely to be confirmed despite dual role, diverging bond markets, beating the S&P 500, what's at stake for the Fed, RRP & liquidity, a unique ETF trade, and Tether looks to more gold for stablecoin backing... Read More
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's payroll report, Treasury volatility & currency hedging costs rising ahead of payrolls report, tariff revenue, job stayers vs. job switchers, debating a sovereign wealth fund in the U.S., timing rate cuts, SF Fed comes to the BLS's defense, and lowering mortgage rates by privatizing the GSEs... Read More
Today's topics include hard data vs. soft surveys, European natural gas storage, global yields hitting highest levels in over a decade, estimating the proper level of reserves, Trump administration moving forward with Fed plans, breaking down gold's rise, and profiling U.S. billionaires... Read More