Today's topics include government debt, China's bond market, after hours trading, earnings season is coming, what will central banks do?, lumber prices, and income gains.... Read More
Today's topics include about last night, no more bears?, travel records, trapped in a cheap mortgage, the U.S. economy outperforms, French spreads widening, and the U.S. stock market vs. the world.... Read More
Today's topics include stocks closing in on great first half of the year, the labor market, the Fed's choose-your-own-adventure approach, housing valuations, the yen is fighting an uphill battle, record TLT inflows, the petrodollar is not dead, and hedge funds selling tech stocks.... Read More
Today's topics include Treasury market liquidity, Fedspeak, the basis trade, quantifying the sources of monetary policy tightening, an eye on the yen, checking in on the odds of a rate cut, a new prediction market, and politics & sentiment.... Read More
Today's topics include when will the Fed return to profitability?, calling for more accountability at the Fed, more on T-bills' share of issuance, Mary Daly has concerns about the labor market, mean vs. median inflation expectations, people expect to retire earlier in life, Larry Summers reiterates higher for longer, momentum plays take a hit, and the housing market.... Read More
Today's topics include neutral rate estimates edging higher, rising debt problems, Treasury auctions leaning on short-term debt, some perspective on Nvidia's valuation, consumer spending, a note on tech inflows, shipping costs remain elevated, and a history of the world's largest companies.... Read More
Today's topics include when will the Fed cut rates?, Fed officials urge patience with rates, foreign travel boosts European economic growth, Nvidia & concentration risk, opinions on defense spending, quiet markets, dollar up, investing in higher-yielding MBS, CRE & mis-rating risk, and politics at central banks... Read More
Today's topics include the government's income vs. spending, Nvidia becomes the world's most valuable company, your daily stories on stock market concentration, quantifying immigration's impact on the labor market, ETFs change the credit market, updating the shipping industry's Red Sea problem, have we reached peak consumer?, the Treasury market's round trip in 2024, and changes coming to the PBOC... Read More
Today's topics include an eye on France, Fedspeak confirms wait & see approach, volatility, quantifying the cost of high inflation, Gen Z's investing style, stock returns after the first rate cut, Gamestop, today's stories on stock market concentration, China's attempts to prop up its stock market, private credit, and the household vs. establishment employment surveys... Read More
Today's topics include do higher rates hurt or help the economy?, the Fed can influence rates by setting expectations, the pain of a recession vs. the pain of inflation, the BoJ to cut back on bond purchases, money market funds continue to attract cash, the art of stockpicking, investing during times of low volatility, and the magnificent one?... Read More
Today's topics include the Fed is still in wait & see mode, the Fed's inflation target, the market vs. the Fed, understanding Fedspeak, the Fed's paper losses, the dollar as the world's reserve currency, some thoughts on volatility over the long run, and consumer concerns... Read More
Today's topics include attempting to project the Fed's path, long bond wagers lose traction pre-FOMC, more on momentum trading in 2024, are higher rates necessary?, forecasting an oil glut, defending the Euro, the persistence of work from home & its impact, private equity could struggle for returns in higher for longer environment, synthetic risk transfers...where hidden threats lie, and China's inflation measures hold steady... Read More
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's CPI report, Timiraos offers thoughts on FOMC meeting, the odds of rate cuts heading into tomorrow's CPI release, quantifying rate cuts across the globe, using ChatGPT to beat the market, post-pandemic productivity, small business optimism, and Russian oil... Read More
Today's topics include more on Friday's jobs report, bond market volatility, the wealth effect keeps recession at bay, synchronized global monetary policy, inflation sentiment & the target rate, central bank policy as elections draw near, signs of volatility beyond the VIX, previewing this week's FOMC meeting, your daily story on stock market concentration, and the housing market... Read More
Today's topics include impact of diverging central banks, food inflation, zombie companies, what do rate cuts mean?, Nvidia stock splits monday, retail investors & real estate investments, bond flows, highlighting risks in private equity space, watching a mania unfold...again, and Bitcoin approaching fresh record... Read More
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's payrolls report, revisions incoming for the payrolls data?, a former Fed official calls for improvements to the dot plot, the Fed vs. the ECB, the deficit, stock market concentration, cash vs. the equal-weighted S&P index, and passive equity money ready to get more active?... Read More
Today's topics include the case for Fed rate cuts?, U.S. vs. European growth, the health of the consumer, the wealth effect, the Beveridge curve back to pre-pandemic norms, central banks aren't giving up on the dollar yet, Summers sees higher for longer, and more on OPEC's supply decision... Read More
Today's topics include T-bill issuance, at what point do reserves become too scarce?, some big upward revisions to a Fed inflation measure, a strong dollar, short sellers are a dying breed, a note on net interest margins, can margins support high valuations?, crude oil supply/demand, and housing supply... Read More
Today's topics include inflation hurts, stock market concentration, equity valuations, 'Higher for longer' is base case now, value menus in inflationary times, chips in focus, Nvidia mints money, OPEC path to $100 oil fails, higher Japanese rates means higher U.S. rates, Gamestop on another tear, and more on private credit... Read More
Today's topics include Macrovoices, more higher-for-longer Fedspeak, higher yields are a headwind for stocks, spending shift?, three years to get to 2%, CRE hurting pensions, debt squeeze, currency stresses, home prices, and investing in India... Read More