Today's topics include breaking down Fed officials' rate forecasts, the Fed vs. the markets, the jobs market, BTFP loans become less attractive, money market funds remain attractive, betting on Chinese stimulus, and keep an eye on the yen... Read More
Today's topics include the risk of resparking inflationary pressures, heavyweight battle: global central banks vs. the Fed, dollar nearly roundtrips its 2024 gains, China's economic growth issues, China's ability to move markets is failing, pressure on traditional asset managers as ETFs and alt managers grow, eroding trust between producers and consumers, and gold is on a mission higher in 2024... Read More
Today's topics include PBOC pulls out stimulus bazooka, China also attempts to shore up property market, Chinese 10-year yields touch 2%, is the Federal Reserve's importance overstated?, checking in on liquidity, an October hike unlikely for the BoJ, money market funds sticking with shorter-term bills, home prices, and bonds ETFs gain in popularity... Read More
Today's topics include market reactions in year after first rate cut, making the case that this time is different, markets see coin flip in November between 25 and 50, yields inch higher after rate cut, the yield curve's predictive power, big bank profits, are money market funds dry powder for risk markets?, small cap stocks go streaking, gold vs. stocks since 2002, and crypto is a leveraged bet on stocks... Read More
Today's topics include the prospects of future easing, dissents at the Fed, focusing on the neutral rate, Dudley on the Fed's reasoning for 50bp cut, BofA's Hartnett focuses on resurgence of bubble risk, China holds rates even with economic activity deteriorating, capturing yield in junk bonds as the Fed cuts rates, Fed moves in election cycles, and struggles of active management in a concentrated market... Read More
Today's topics include the market got its supersized cut...now what?, Powell admits the neutral rate is 'significantly higher', the Fed cuts & the long end moves higher, Bowman is first FOMC governor to dissent since 2005, understanding Fedspeak, is a soft landing now in sight?, a chance for recent homebuyers to refi, and the jobs market... Read More
Today's topics include Timiraos goes out of his way to reiterate this is a close call, big bets on today's decision, stocks' reaction to rate cuts, the Japanification of China, checking in on the Fed's reverse repo facility, the Fed's deferred assets, comparing & contrasting CPI & PCE, and return to office... Read More
Today's topics include still no clarity on 25 vs. 50, what to expect if the Fed cuts 50, the BoJ's delicate task of zigging when everyone is zagging, slowing wage growth, fiscal spending, consumer confidence & the stock market, mortgage rates have to move much lower to affect housing market, and natural gas supply/demand... Read More
Today's topics include the 25 vs. 50 debate continues, looking beyond this week's meeting, is a unanimous vote really necessary?, the Fed vs. other central banks, stocks' response to rate cuts depends on reason for cuts, housing affordability, updating the Mag Seven vs. the rest, an eye on delinquent loans, and hedge funds short brent crude for first time since at least 2011... Read More
Today's topics include now we have Fed uncertainty?, real rates see new high, stocks versus bonds, what is driving equity markets?, small-caps vs large-caps, more on the demand hit to crude, record low on China's 10-year yield, defensive sector rotation, the political struggle over housing affordability, and the prospects of an American sovereign wealth fund... Read More
An update on the world's richest people... Read More
Today's topics include more on yesterday's CPI release, setting up for a 25bp cut, markets will decide when enough is enough, banks' net interest income, BoJ hawk sees 1% rates in Japan...by 2027, China dragging down crude & U.S. rates?, Chinese stocks make a 5-year round-trip, and ETF flows... Read More
Today's topics include breakevens are pricing inflation below 2%, on the road to $2 trillion, lending standards & Fed rate cut timing, the 2s10s yield curve has disinverted, hedge fund activity & PE lending, eyes on the BoJ, the structure of the labor market, more on a struggling Chinese economy, and a focus on the costs & outcomes of AI... Read More
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's CPI report, the yield curve, economic uncertainty, handicapping the debate, Yellen on the U.S. economy, a struggling European economy, BoJ signals it will keep rates unchanged next week, China's battle against deflation, the return of HELOCs, and multi-manager hedge funds see outflows... Read More
Today's topics include the 25 vs. 50 debate rolls on, the Fed is late to the rate-cutting party, asset classes telling different economic story, stock market seasonality, pricing uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election, housing affordability, Chinese deflation, record corporate issuance, an eye on port strikes, and Bitcoin ETF outflows... Read More
Today's topics include perspective on the sizing of September's rate cut, paying attention to volatility, Fedspeak, more new debt issues, the state of globalization, commodity demand, issues in China seem hard to resolve, more on China's desire to control markets & investment, office commercial real estate issues are not over, and Cliff Asness on market efficiency & social media... Read More
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's payrolls report, a look at construction jobs, disinversion of the wrong curve, Fedspeak, the case against a 50 basis point rate cut, extreme optimism in the stock market, an eye on BoJ policy & the carry trade, and OPEC feeling the pain of lower crude prices... Read More
Today's topics include stocks' rough day, profiling the immigrant workforce, should the Fed cut rates aggressively?, the spike in inflation was not solely a supply problem, housing supply & demand, heavy lies the crown, and checking in on the T+1 transition... Read More
Today's topics include seasonality of returns, magic or luck?, re-forecasting 2024 S&P 500 returns, consumer spending remains strong, a widening rally, the cost of housing, equity rally driving record market inflows, households' bullishness on stocks, apartment construction, where is the global travel slowdown?, and smaller size of new companies post-pandemic... Read More
