Today's topics include Timiraos cements a cut followed by a pause, why is the Fed even cutting rates?, the Fed needs to continue cutting!, everyone is bullish on stocks!, the latest BofA survey, looking for signs of funding strain, yen approaching danger zone, and fiscally speaking... Read More
Today's topics include the importance of forward guidance this week, bonds' bad week, the 10-year/3-month yield curve uninverts, dynamic pricing's effect on inflation, treasury policy & the basis trade, time for a santa rally in stocks?, volatility in 2025, and crypto regulation... Read More
Today's topics include more on FOMC expectations next year, what to expect from stocks in 2025, bad breadth, breaking down wages & inflation by income, the deficit is only accelerating in 2025, the Mag Seven are bigger than all economies except the U.S. & China, trading volumes get a Trump bump, and Chinese yields continue to plummet.... Read More
Today's topics include talkin' markets, more on yesterday's cpi release, looking beyond the December FOMC meeting, the pros and cons of tariffs, Pimco offers thoughts on lowering the deficit, insider selling, the housing market for first-time buyers, BoJ expected to keep rates steady next week, and the world's oldest bond turns 400... Read More
Today's topics include more on the dollar, revisiting the characteristics of an asset bubble, private equity FOMO, cost of labor revised lower, are markets or analysts right on volatility & risks?, what CPI means for Fed's December plans, reverse repo, global debt concerns, a long-term look at slowing global growth, structured products volume rising is a sign of more risky bets, ranking economies in 2024, and thought experiment on AI & monetary policy... Read More
Today's topics include ... Read More
Today's topics include timing the end of QT, next week's FOMC meeting, a sobering note on interest costs from Jeff Gundlach, Trump plans to keep Powell around, grey swans, politics & interest rates, the stock market is still highly concentrated, active ETFs, and bitcoin ETF flows... Read More
Today's topics include a more productive economy, US equity inflows bucking global outflow trend, complacency warnings starting, more on the cost of food, the inflation fight isn't over, buyback record, pensions to dip further into PE investments, and on the latest parabolic crypto rally... Read More
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's payrolls report, Fedspeak, bonds as a hedge to stocks, some hope for small cap stocks, the odds of a BoJ hike tumble, more on the partisan nature of business owners/executives, the number of billionaires rises, and another crypto milestone... Read More
Today's topics include the OECD's global economic outlook, Fedspeak, the relationship between Treasury yields & relative U.S. stock returns, bullish bond market sentiment, charting tariffs, China's leverage in the tariff war, a bubble checklist, and oil supply & demand... Read More
Today's topics include the jobs market, more on U.S. vs. European valuations, comparing productivity among G7 countries, Fedspeak, politics & sentiment, some technical reasons for stock bullishness, gold vs. stocks, quantifying the return of the carry trade, and the yuan's slide continues... Read More
Today's topics include U.S. markets relative to the global economy, the strange state of the U.S. housing market, the rising cost of McDonalds, Japanese yields' furious rise continues on hike anticipation, OPEC & the price of oil, worry about the Japanification of China, shipping fees & the holiday season, what's ahead for the dollar, Saudi holdings of U.S. Treasuries, and banking industry competition heats up... Read More
Today's topics include Fed officials consider tweaking overnight repo facility rate, the coming debt maturity wall, the dollar & stocks, an eye on used car prices, Japanese stimulus, BoJ dealing with the cost of higher interest rates, a worker shortage in the sea shipping industry, and stablecoin market cap reaches new record... Read More
Today's topics include Fedspeak, Mag 7 earnings vs. valuations, credit market risk, volatility, tariffs, more on Bessent, tracking 60/40 portfolios, the tall task DOGE has ahead, and owning bitcoin comes with tax struggles... Read More
Today's topics include getting to know Scott Bessent, still feeling inflation's bite, concerns over inflation's return, a historical look at the deficit, is this time different for stocks?, quantifying the effects of tariffs, a Santa Claus rally vs. post-election rally, and criticizing the idea of a bitcoin reserve... Read More
Today's topics include the Treasury secretary job, Fedspeak, stretched valuations, projecting long-term stock returns, an eye on year-end funding costs, the dollar goes streaking, the yen carry trade, and U.S. stocks vs. the rest of the world's stocks.... Read More
Today's topics include how low will they go?, Fedspeak, 24/7 markets?, what's driving rates & stocks higher?, do the Chinese have a debt problem?, tight credit spreads unlikely to cheapen soon, Buffett's cash pile, and the AI bubble... Read More
Today's topics include the state of the U.S. consumer, stock market demographics, which types of tax cuts create growth?, cash is king, an alternative idea to fix the housing market, waiting on the next bear market to buy in, and traders shoot for the moon with bitcoin options... Read More
Today's topics include labor market tightness & inflation, breaking down inflation's contributors, the Fed's wait & see approach to Trump 2.0, insiders are selling, an eye on credit card delinquencies, Nvidia drives the market, foreign holdings of U.S. treasuries, corporate spreads remain near record tight, and a deep dive on the effect of tariffs... Read More
Today's topics include sticky housing inflation, alternative inflation metrics, debt-to-income levels decline, big stock fund inflows, looks like another busy week for Powell's PR team, breaking down the federal workforce, suggestions for the Department of Government Efficiency, and BoJ continues to promise rate hikes... Read More