Tag Archives: Economy

May 14, 2018

Economy

Choppy Markets Reflect a Showdown Between Competing Storylines
Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Featured, Newsclips

Choppy equity markets are being produced by a battle between two major storylines: "synchronized global growth" and fear this is "as good as it gets." We have previously shown synchronized growth has already ended, therefore the onus is on a rebound in fading economic data changes. Equity markets can no longer be so reliant on the stories of late 2017 and early 2018.... Read More

May 4, 2018

Economy

Employment In Pictures
Posted By Greg Blaha | Monthly Reports, Newsclips

A look at the April 2018 payroll report.... Read More

May 3, 2018

Economy

“As Good as it Gets”
Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Newsclips

Investors are contemplating whether or not earnings and economic growth are "as good as it gets." Global concerted growth has indeed ended with diverging data change indices. Transitions away from economic surprises and above-average data changes have typically produced the greatest volatility over the ensuing months.... Read More

April 30, 2018

Economy

Market Capitalization As A Percentage Of GDP
Market Cap to GDP Statistics, Newsclips

Comparing the size of U.S. GDP to various markets... Read More

April 24, 2018

Economy

Concerted Global Growth is Over, Now What?!
Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Featured, Newsclips

We are not getting excited about U.S. 10-year yields hitting 3.0%. Slowing economic growth will likely keep sovereign yields from racing higher, even if inflation begins to percolate. Concerted global economic growth has ended with data changes detaching and the percentage of economies producing above-average growth nearing a drop below 60%. Defensive sectors and municipal bonds top our list of attractive investments.... Read More

April 18, 2018

Economy

The U.S. Is A Service-Providing Country
Posted By Greg Blaha | Charts of the Week

Since 1939, the creation of service-providing jobs has outpaced that of goods-producing jobs almost ten to one.... Read More

April 16, 2018

Economy

Inflation Expectations Face Headwinds from Slowing Growth and Tightening Policy
Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Featured, Newsclips

An end to concerted global growth and shift to tightening by major central banks will likely keep a lid on market-based inflation expectations like U.S. TIPS breakevens. Financial stress has shed its negative correlation to tightening expectations, meaning rate hikes are finally viewed as a contractionary hindrance. ... Read More

Economy

Investors are Betting on False Prophets
Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Newsclips

Group-think has likely led a dramatic rebound in soft, survey-based data, creating a large divergence from hard data. Whether or not global economic growth is cresting or rolling over, dampening expectations are in order. We expect higher volatility to continue across equities, while U.S. Treasuries remain in 'wait and see mode' for realized inflation growth. All in all, the VIX and MOVE will remain disconnected.... Read More

Economy

Tax Freedom Day – April 19
Posted By Jim Bianco | Newsclips

Tax Freedom Day is the day of the year when workers have effectively worked enough to pay their taxes for the year and can begin making money for themselves. In 2018 Tax Freedom Day is April 19.... Read More

April 11, 2018

Economy

Commodity Returns Reaffirm Slowing Global Growth
Posted By Peter Forbes | Charts of the Week

An update of our world GDP estimate as explained by commodities... Read More

April 10, 2018

Economy

Technology Sector is an Anchor Attached to Core Inflation and Productivity
Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Newsclips

The rise of the technology sector has produced an anchor for core inflation. Convergence between other sectors like industrials, materials, and consumer discretionary is bound to occur, but not over the short run. All in all, the game has changed for inflation and so too should the Fed's use of a target.... Read More

April 6, 2018

Economy

Employment In Pictures – Don’t Blame The Weather
Posted By Greg Blaha | Monthly Reports, Newsclips

With the payroll number missing expectations, many were quick to blame March's unusual snowfall in the Northeast. Unfortunately, the statistics do not back up this opinion.... Read More

Economy

Eurozone Economic Data Not Very Rosy, U.S. to Follow?
Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Newsclips

Waning Eurozone economic data is now being exacerbated by worsening soft, survey-based data. The Eurozone's pace of improvement in soft data is falling below that of the U.S. for the first time since March 2017. ... Read More

April 5, 2018

Economy

Lingering Winter Weather In Parts Of U.S. Unlikely To Affect Payroll Report
Posted By Greg Blaha | Newsclips

Despite lingering winter weather in parts of the U.S., the payroll report is unlikely to be abnormally affected.... Read More

April 4, 2018

Economy

Consumer Healthy, But Warts Remain
Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Featured, Newsclips

The consumer is healthy, but signs of a slack and deteriorating real estate interest will likely prevent core inflation from achieving the Fed's target of 2.0% in 2019.... Read More

March 28, 2018

Economy

The Fed’s GDP Forecasts Diverging Once Again
Posted By Greg Blaha | Newsclips

The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now sees Q1 growth at 1.8%. The New York Fed's Nowcast sees 2.9% Q1 growth. What gives?... Read More

March 27, 2018

Economy

U.S. Economic Data – Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop?
Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Featured, Newsclips

Eurozone economic data have made a swift turn to missing expectations, heightening the potential for the U.S. to follow suit. Any revivals in the spread between U.S. and German inflation expectations should be short-lived. The U.S. has built significantly more inflation premium into nominal yields, meaning greater risk in the event realized inflation is a bust.... Read More

March 23, 2018

Economy

Concerted Global Growth is Fading
Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Featured, Newsclips

Incoming economic data are missing expectations across a majority of developed economies, foreshadowing a shift to sub-par realized data changes. These transitions have not been kind to global equity markets. Notably, inflation changes are also falling back to one-year average growth rates.... Read More

March 20, 2018

Economy

The Phillips Curve
Newsclips

The Phillips curve is dead...or is it?... Read More

Choppy Markets Reflect a Showdown Between Competing Storylines Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Featured, Newsclips

Employment In Pictures Posted By Greg Blaha | Monthly Reports, Newsclips

“As Good as it Gets” Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Newsclips

Market Capitalization As A Percentage Of GDP Market Cap to GDP Statistics, Newsclips

Concerted Global Growth is Over, Now What?! Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Featured, Newsclips

The U.S. Is A Service-Providing Country Posted By Greg Blaha | Charts of the Week

Inflation Expectations Face Headwinds from Slowing Growth and Tightening Policy Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Featured, Newsclips

Investors are Betting on False Prophets Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Newsclips

Tax Freedom Day – April 19 Posted By Jim Bianco | Newsclips

Commodity Returns Reaffirm Slowing Global Growth Posted By Peter Forbes | Charts of the Week

Technology Sector is an Anchor Attached to Core Inflation and Productivity Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Newsclips

Employment In Pictures – Don’t Blame The Weather Posted By Greg Blaha | Monthly Reports, Newsclips

Eurozone Economic Data Not Very Rosy, U.S. to Follow? Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Newsclips

Lingering Winter Weather In Parts Of U.S. Unlikely To Affect Payroll Report Posted By Greg Blaha | Newsclips

Consumer Healthy, But Warts Remain Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Featured, Newsclips

The Fed’s GDP Forecasts Diverging Once Again Posted By Greg Blaha | Newsclips

U.S. Economic Data – Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop? Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Featured, Newsclips

Concerted Global Growth is Fading Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Featured, Newsclips

More Signs of Slowdown Emerging Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Newsclips

The Phillips Curve Newsclips

Choppy Markets Reflect a Showdown Between Competing Storylines
Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Featured, Newsclips

Employment In Pictures
Posted By Greg Blaha | Monthly Reports, Newsclips

“As Good as it Gets”
Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Newsclips

Market Capitalization As A Percentage Of GDP
Market Cap to GDP Statistics, Newsclips

Concerted Global Growth is Over, Now What?!
Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Featured, Newsclips

The U.S. Is A Service-Providing Country
Posted By Greg Blaha | Charts of the Week

Inflation Expectations Face Headwinds from Slowing Growth and Tightening Policy
Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Featured, Newsclips

Investors are Betting on False Prophets
Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Newsclips

Tax Freedom Day – April 19
Posted By Jim Bianco | Newsclips

Commodity Returns Reaffirm Slowing Global Growth
Posted By Peter Forbes | Charts of the Week

Technology Sector is an Anchor Attached to Core Inflation and Productivity
Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Newsclips

Employment In Pictures – Don’t Blame The Weather
Posted By Greg Blaha | Monthly Reports, Newsclips

Eurozone Economic Data Not Very Rosy, U.S. to Follow?
Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Newsclips

Lingering Winter Weather In Parts Of U.S. Unlikely To Affect Payroll Report
Posted By Greg Blaha | Newsclips

Consumer Healthy, But Warts Remain
Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Featured, Newsclips

The Fed’s GDP Forecasts Diverging Once Again
Posted By Greg Blaha | Newsclips

U.S. Economic Data – Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop?
Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Featured, Newsclips

Concerted Global Growth is Fading
Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Featured, Newsclips

More Signs of Slowdown Emerging
Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Newsclips

The Phillips Curve
Newsclips