Economists are coming around to the idea that the Fed needs to cut rates, but are still well behind market expectations.... Read More
While the market continues to demand a cut, the stock market and the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index are in the range where the Fed begins a rate cut cycle.... Read More
There is an old saying in the markets that the Fed decides when to raise rates and the market decides when to cut rates. The market has decided it is time to cut rates.... Read More
Our latest Bloomberg column ponders why monetary policy isn?t having the desired effect and whether the Federal Reserve may be asking for opinions from the wrong people.... Read More
Yesterday Fed Vice Chair Clarida said the Fed does not need to cut rates unless the economy weakens. The market is now pricing in three cuts over the next year, bringing even the July meeting into question.... Read More
The march toward the first Fed cut continues. Economists continue to fight this move.... Read More
Yesterday Jim was on CNBC with Rick Santelli talking about the Chinese trade war and the Fed.... Read More
Our latest Bloomberg column ... Read More
Powell made another declarative statement in saying low inflation is "transitory" and then offered weak excuses as to why. It reminded the market of "automatic pilot" last December and the response was similar.... Read More
FOMC statements continue to get shorter and easier to understand. According to the Flesch-Kincaid grade level test, readers don't even need a high school diploma to understand yesterday's statement.... Read More
The biggest issue for the Fed at today's FOMC meeting is what do about the effective fund's rate. Expect something on this front.... Read More
A combination of low Inflation and weak GDP real final sales might prompt the Fed to consider a rate cut.... Read More
Our latest Bloomberg column questions the appropriateness of the Fed's dual mandate in today's markets.... Read More
A look at central bank balance sheets... Read More
The job of Fed Governor is broken and it needs to be fixed.... Read More
The fear that central banks will become political is legitimate. But first, let's figure out what causes inflation before we proclaim that fed officials advocating that cutting rates because growth does not cause inflation is akin to the Fed losing independence.... Read More
The Fed has been asking primary dealers a lot of questions about a potential repo facility to help combat the month-end spikes in funding rates. Tomorrow's FOMC minutes may offer some clues as to where the Fed stands on this vetting process.... Read More
The Fed holds roughly $2.2 trillion of Treasury securities, the large majority of which will not mature for at least 5 years.... Read More
It is not uncommon for the curve to bounce off zero, but the trend is lower and persistent inversion should be expected.... Read More
The market is pricing in a fall rate cut. The Fed is pushing back against it. If the market continues to price in a cut over the next four weeks, look for the Fed to change its tune and start talking about cutting.... Read More