We believe the real fear in the halls of the Fed is not that Trump moves to take over the Fed. Rather, the fear might be that Trump moves to take more control over the Fed and the markets rally in approval.... Read More
Yesterday, CNBC's Steve Liesman relayed some interesting concerns from inside the walls of the Federal Reserve.... Read More
The Fed has not clearly articulated a reason for cutting rates. They now seem to be focusing on weak global growth, something that rarely topped their discussions. Powell needs to explain why they are cutting rates Wednesday, otherwise the conclusion is the markets are driving Fed policy.... Read More
The Fed is preparing to cut rates. Since they have not articulated a reason, it seems that the inverted curve and market pricing are driving this decision. If the inverted curve is weighing into the decision, the Fed should continue cutting until the yield curve really steepens. In the past, that has taken several rate cuts, often by more than 100 basis points.... Read More
The Fed has now made it clear they are cutting 25 basis points next week. While we have our reasons for favoring rate cuts, we have not heard a good argument articulated by the Fed. Is data dependency dead?... Read More
If the Fed listened to the market and started hiking several years ago, they would not be agonizing over cuts today.... Read More
Yesterday New York Fed President John Williams and Vice-Chairman Richard Clarida made dovish comments that the markets interpreted to mean a 50 basis point cut might be coming at the July meeting. The New York Fed tried to walk back these comments hours later.... Read More
Powell's dovish comments yesterday set the stage for a cut later this month.... Read More
Later today Chair Powell will discuss the outlook for monetary policy. How the Fed actually conducts policy is unlikely to be brought up. However, the effective fed funds rate continues to creep above the target, creating more headaches for policymakers.... Read More
The market is still pricing in a 100% probability of a 25 basis point cut. However, given the yield curve's inversion, a 50 basis point cut might make more sense.... Read More
The probability of a rate cut is still 100%. But the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut, to a range of 1.75% - 2.00%, all but disappeared.... Read More
We offer our thoughts on the president's latest nominations for the Fed.... Read More
In the latest Econovue podcast Jim Bianco discussed the Fed and Fed policy. Full disclosure, the White House interviewed him for the position of Fed Governor in late May.... Read More
A majority of economists surveyed by Bloomberg last week (20 of 37) do NOT expect the Fed to cut rates on July 31. Meanwhile, the market has priced a probability of a cut at 100%.... Read More
The old saying still holds true. The Fed decides when to hike and the market decides when to cut. Economists are still struggling to embrace this concept.... Read More
The Fed decides when to raise rates and the market decides when to cut. The market sees no inflation, rising economic risks and is pricing in several cuts. It has a very good track record.... Read More
The Fed decides when to hike rates and drags the markets along kicking and screaming. The markets decide when to cut rates and drag the Fed along kicking and screaming. So far, this old adage has rung true as the Fed embarks on an easing campaign.... Read More
The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections shows a difference of opinion in the direction of the funds rate beyond 2019.... Read More
While the Fed is unlikely to cut rates later today, references to "patience" are likely to be removed from the statement. Likewise, the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections are likely to show lower expectations for the funds rate. This meeting should set the table for a series of rate cuts, starting as early as July.... Read More
Our latest Bloomberg column focuses on Stan Fischer's comments regarding Federal Reserve independence in the era of Trump tweets.... Read More