Tag Archives: Central Banks

Central Banks

When Has the Fed Cut Enough?
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

The Fed is preparing to cut rates. Since they have not articulated a reason, it seems that the inverted curve and market pricing are driving this decision. If the inverted curve is weighing into the decision, the Fed should continue cutting until the yield curve really steepens. In the past, that has taken several rate cuts, often by more than 100 basis points.... Read More

Central Banks

Why Is the Fed Cutting Rates?
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

The Fed has now made it clear they are cutting 25 basis points next week. While we have our reasons for favoring rate cuts, we have not heard a good argument articulated by the Fed. Is data dependency dead?... Read More

Central Banks

The Fed Walks Back Its Comments, Will It Still Cut 50?
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

Yesterday New York Fed President John Williams and Vice-Chairman Richard Clarida made dovish comments that the markets interpreted to mean a 50 basis point cut might be coming at the July meeting. The New York Fed tried to walk back these comments hours later.... Read More

Central Banks

Powell Delivered for the Doves
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

Powell's dovish comments yesterday set the stage for a cut later this month.... Read More

Central Banks

Effective Fed Funds Rate Creeping Higher Again
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

Later today Chair Powell will discuss the outlook for monetary policy. How the Fed actually conducts policy is unlikely to be brought up. However, the effective fed funds rate continues to creep above the target, creating more headaches for policymakers.... Read More

Central Banks

The Case for a 50 Basis Point Cut
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

The market is still pricing in a 100% probability of a 25 basis point cut. However, given the yield curve's inversion, a 50 basis point cut might make more sense.... Read More

Central Banks

Where Is the Fed After Payrolls?
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

The probability of a rate cut is still 100%. But the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut, to a range of 1.75% - 2.00%, all but disappeared.... Read More

Central Banks

Thoughts on the Fed and Trump’s New Picks
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

In the latest Econovue podcast Jim Bianco discussed the Fed and Fed policy. Full disclosure, the White House interviewed him for the position of Fed Governor in late May.... Read More

Central Banks

Economists and Markets Are Still Not Aligned on the Fed
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

A majority of economists surveyed by Bloomberg last week (20 of 37) do NOT expect the Fed to cut rates on July 31. Meanwhile, the market has priced a probability of a cut at 100%.... Read More

Central Banks

The Market Decides When to Cut
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

The old saying still holds true. The Fed decides when to hike and the market decides when to cut. Economists are still struggling to embrace this concept.... Read More

Central Banks

The Market’s Track Record in Predicting Cuts
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

The Fed decides when to raise rates and the market decides when to cut. The market sees no inflation, rising economic risks and is pricing in several cuts. It has a very good track record.... Read More

Central Banks

What’s Next for the Fed?
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

The Fed decides when to hike rates and drags the markets along kicking and screaming. The markets decide when to cut rates and drag the Fed along kicking and screaming. So far, this old adage has rung true as the Fed embarks on an easing campaign.... Read More

Central Banks

What to Expect from the Fed
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

While the Fed is unlikely to cut rates later today, references to "patience" are likely to be removed from the statement. Likewise, the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections are likely to show lower expectations for the funds rate. This meeting should set the table for a series of rate cuts, starting as early as July.... Read More

Central Banks

Economists Still Skeptical About a Rate Cut
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

Economists are coming around to the idea that the Fed needs to cut rates, but are still well behind market expectations.... Read More

Central Banks

The Powell Put Was Exercised Yesterday
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

There is an old saying in the markets that the Fed decides when to raise rates and the market decides when to cut rates. The market has decided it is time to cut rates.... Read More