Tag Archives: Central Banks

Central Banks

Why Market-Based Probabilities of a Cut Are Distorted
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

The consensus forming in the market is the Fed will cut tomorrow and signal they are done. While this seems a likely scenario, it is worth noting the market's true odds of further cuts are likely understated due to the liquidity problems in the repo market.... Read More

Central Banks

What Does the Market Want the Fed to Do?
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

The fed funds futures market is being distorted by problems in the repo market. In turn, this means the implied odds of any future rate cuts are also being distorted.... Read More

Central Banks

Understanding Fedspeak & the Summary of Economic Projections
Posted By Greg Blaha  |  Featured, Newsclips

The median FOMC forecast is for rates to hold steady at the final two meetings of the year. Be careful making too much of the market's implied odds of cuts due to the stress in the repo market.... Read More

Central Banks

Did the ECB Actually HIKE Rates Last Week?
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

Over the last few days, the bond market has traded as though the ECB hiked rates. In light of the new tiering system, this is actually true. The effective ECB deposit rate went from -0.40% to -0.27%.... Read More

Central Banks

Tomorrow’s ECB Meeting – The Most Important Central Bank Decision of All
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

Central bankers talk about the limits of monetary policy, but the ECB has not acted in a way that indicates their effectiveness is in question. Instead of acting again tomorrow, they should recognize their limits and not move.... Read More

Central Banks

What Will the Fed Do/What Should the Fed Do?
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

Today the Wall Street Journal posted a story indicating the Fed will likely only cut rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting. This is not enough to un-invert the curve and will likely disappoint the markets.... Read More

Central Banks

Should the U.S. Stand Alone?
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

The fed funds rate remains the highest interest rate in the developed world and the only one above 2%. The Taylor Rule suggests this should not necessarily be the case.... Read More

Central Banks

Making the Case for 50
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

Jim discussed his case for cutting rates 50 basis points.... Read More

Central Banks

All Eyes on Powell Tomorrow
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

The markets are pricing in a much more aggressive rate cutting campaign than the Fed has hinted at so far. Powell has a chance to address this difference of opinion at his Jackson Hole speech tomorrow.... Read More

Central Banks

The Dissenters’ Case For Not Cutting Rates
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

Eric Rosengren and Esther George recently offered their arguments for holding rates steady. We see larger risks in a slow rate cut campaign than in a fast rate cut campaign.... Read More

Central Banks

The Fed Cuts Rates, but Still Disappoints Markets
Posted By Greg Blaha  |  Featured, Newsclips

Jim was on the TD Ameritrade network talking about the Fed.... Read More

Central Banks

Relative Rates and the Fed Decision
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

As the Fed prepares to cut rates for the first time since 2008, attention will turn to forward guidance. More cuts are expected later this year.... Read More

Central Banks

If the Fed Gets This Wrong, Its Very Existence Could Be at Stake
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

Yesterday, CNBC's Steve Liesman relayed some interesting concerns from inside the walls of the Federal Reserve.... Read More

Central Banks

Why Is the Fed Cutting Rates?
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

The Fed has not clearly articulated a reason for cutting rates. They now seem to be focusing on weak global growth, something that rarely topped their discussions. Powell needs to explain why they are cutting rates Wednesday, otherwise the conclusion is the markets are driving Fed policy.... Read More

Central Banks

When Has the Fed Cut Enough?
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

The Fed is preparing to cut rates. Since they have not articulated a reason, it seems that the inverted curve and market pricing are driving this decision. If the inverted curve is weighing into the decision, the Fed should continue cutting until the yield curve really steepens. In the past, that has taken several rate cuts, often by more than 100 basis points.... Read More