Tag Archives: Central Banks

Central Banks

The Fed: Everyone Has a Plan Until They Are Punched in the Mouth
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

Jim was on CNBC's Trading Nation yesterday talking about the outlook for the Fed going into 2020. The Fed has a plan to keep rates steady for the foreseeable future, but as Jim quipped, "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." He believes a 5% to 7% correction in stocks in 2020 could force the Fed to revisit talks of rate cuts.... Read More

Central Banks

A New Funds Rate Ceiling?
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

Powell's inflation comments put a ceiling on the funds rate. Also, the FOMC statements continue to get shorter and easier to understand. According to the Flesch-Kincaid grade-level test, readers don't even need a high school diploma to understand yesterday's statement.... Read More

Central Banks

Why Market-Based Probabilities of a Cut Are Distorted
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

The consensus forming in the market is the Fed will cut tomorrow and signal they are done. While this seems a likely scenario, it is worth noting the market's true odds of further cuts are likely understated due to the liquidity problems in the repo market.... Read More

Central Banks

What Does the Market Want the Fed to Do?
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

The fed funds futures market is being distorted by problems in the repo market. In turn, this means the implied odds of any future rate cuts are also being distorted.... Read More

Central Banks

Understanding Fedspeak & the Summary of Economic Projections
Posted By Greg Blaha  |  Featured, Newsclips

The median FOMC forecast is for rates to hold steady at the final two meetings of the year. Be careful making too much of the market's implied odds of cuts due to the stress in the repo market.... Read More

Central Banks

Did the ECB Actually HIKE Rates Last Week?
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

Over the last few days, the bond market has traded as though the ECB hiked rates. In light of the new tiering system, this is actually true. The effective ECB deposit rate went from -0.40% to -0.27%.... Read More

Central Banks

Tomorrow’s ECB Meeting – The Most Important Central Bank Decision of All
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

Central bankers talk about the limits of monetary policy, but the ECB has not acted in a way that indicates their effectiveness is in question. Instead of acting again tomorrow, they should recognize their limits and not move.... Read More

Central Banks

What Will the Fed Do/What Should the Fed Do?
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

Today the Wall Street Journal posted a story indicating the Fed will likely only cut rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting. This is not enough to un-invert the curve and will likely disappoint the markets.... Read More

Central Banks

Should the U.S. Stand Alone?
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

The fed funds rate remains the highest interest rate in the developed world and the only one above 2%. The Taylor Rule suggests this should not necessarily be the case.... Read More

Central Banks

Making the Case for 50
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

Jim discussed his case for cutting rates 50 basis points.... Read More

Central Banks

All Eyes on Powell Tomorrow
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

The markets are pricing in a much more aggressive rate cutting campaign than the Fed has hinted at so far. Powell has a chance to address this difference of opinion at his Jackson Hole speech tomorrow.... Read More

Central Banks

The Dissenters’ Case For Not Cutting Rates
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

Eric Rosengren and Esther George recently offered their arguments for holding rates steady. We see larger risks in a slow rate cut campaign than in a fast rate cut campaign.... Read More

Central Banks

The Fed Cuts Rates, but Still Disappoints Markets
Posted By Greg Blaha  |  Featured, Newsclips

Jim was on the TD Ameritrade network talking about the Fed.... Read More

Central Banks

Relative Rates and the Fed Decision
Posted By Jim Bianco  |  Featured, Newsclips

As the Fed prepares to cut rates for the first time since 2008, attention will turn to forward guidance. More cuts are expected later this year.... Read More