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We believe rates have not peaked and will not peak until we see evidence of weakening wage growth. Until then, rates across the curve will shift higher in tandem as the Fed continues to hike rates into 2023.
Japan and China's holdings of Treasuries dropped again in October. A large part of this is simply a function of Treasuries' terrible returns. In the case of Japan, it may also be a sign of stress for the BoJ.
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CPI came in well below expectations again in November. Projecting where inflation will be in several months is an impossible task, but running through several scenarios offers some perspective.
In the latest installment of Talking Data, Alex discusses short-expiration options and intraday market volatility.
The Fed's cumulative losses now total over $13 billion.
As Quantitative Tightening (QT) and other tightening policies continue, the Federal Reserve's reverse repo facility is an essential piece to understanding how the Fed can potentially enact a smooth balance sheet reduction schedule.
Wall Street is forecasting a recession, soaring unemployment, collapsing inflation, and the worst profit outlook in at least a generation. But the hope is this could be bullish for stocks as it leads to a Fed pivot and another liquidity-driven rally.
Friday's payroll report was good; it showed an expanding economy. But in this "good news is bad news for markets" world, this good report tanked risk markets, especially NASDAQ stocks. Then Wall Street/investors spent all day convincing themselves...
In the latest installment of Talking Data, Jim discusses the rise in 10-year yields.
In past years we highlighted the world’s aging population and its need for low-risk investments, noting that inflows into bond mutual funds and ETFs topped those of stock funds over the past decade. This divergence really began accelerating in the...
Today's topics include hoping for a pivot, market stress, central banks cater to the markets, fighting inflation takes a long toll, asset managers in focus, the odds of a recession, more signs of stress on housing market, and updating the return to...