The 4-5-6 Markets
January 24, 2025
A replay of our January 28, 2024 conference call.
Our Research
Sample Our Reports, Presentations, & Market Insights
Markets
Why the Market Is Signaling an Inflation Problem?
December 26, 2024
The TIPS market and consumer surveys expect higher inflation levels in 2025. The bond market is responding with higher yields even though the Fed is cutting rates and sees more rate cuts into 2025.
Data Reports
Employment in Pictures – Strikes and Weather
November 1, 2024
Weather and strikes have muddied the payroll report's economic signaling. We will have to wait for revisions. The unemployment rate was not muddied, pointing to some strength in the labor market.
Markets
All Models Are Wrong, Some Are Useful
September 23, 2024
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators' failure to predict the post-Covid economy should be a reminder that this is no longer the pre-Covid economy. Assuming the economy "normalizes" to the pre-Covid economy risks policy mistakes.
Markets
Why Is RRP Falling?
August 12, 2024
Money parked in the Federal Reserve's reverse repo facility is shrinking again as money fund managers extend maturity to hold onto 5%+ yield as long as possible. This move is being driven by the belief that the Fed is finally going to start cutting...
Markets
What Does It Mean That the Stock Market Is Down to the Fabulous Four?
July 18, 2024
The stock market's year-to-date gains are more concentrated than just about any historical period. Wall Street is desperately looking for money to keep the rally going, but sources of liquidity are drying up.
Introducing Our Index & Our 2024 Outlook
December 20, 2023
Join us Thursday, December 21, 2023 for our next conference call.
Markets
Bank Liquidity Is Still the Issue!
April 3, 2023
We keep returning to the issue of depositors withdrawing funds from banks for higher-yielding alternatives. This is a liquidity crisis impacting the liability of side of the banks' balance sheets. Banking data released late last week show the...
Markets
What Will the Fed Do Next Week?
March 15, 2023
In this confusing environment, we believe the Fed will take its cue from the stock market in deciding what to do next week.
Data Reports
Employment in Pictures – Payrolls Beat an 11th Straight Time
March 10, 2023
Payrolls beat expectations for a record 11th straight month. Despite another beat, the fed funds market remains split on whether the Fed will hike 25 basis points or 50 basis points on March 22.
Talking Data Podcast
Talking Data – The Problem With Surveys: Payrolls Edition
March 9, 2023
In the latest installment of Talking Data, Jim discusses the payrolls survey and survey response rates.
Markets
Understanding 0DTE Part 1: Measuring Volatility
March 7, 2023
While intraday volatility rises, longer-term volatility remains subdued. Traditional measures of volatility are being questioned. Understanding how this happened might give a clue as to where the risk lies.