ETF Flows
U.S. Treasuries No Longer the Hedge They Once Were, Investors are...
March 1, 2018
Investors are no longer able to confidently hedge equity exposure using long-end U.S. Treasuries, causing many to lower risk exposure.
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ETF Flows
Will Shorts in U.S. High Yield ETFs Be Caught Offsides?
March 1, 2018
Short investors who misinterpreted large net outflows from U.S. high yield ETFs could be caught offsides.
Fed
Inflation/Wages – Investors in ‘Put Up or Shut Up’...
February 28, 2018
Investors are now in the 'put up or shut up' phase by demanding realized inflation and wage growth to build more inflation and hawkish action into safe and risk assets. Consumer trends have mildly softened to begin 2018, making upcoming personal...
Markets
Time to Extend Duration?
February 27, 2018
Higher yields and wider spreads may be appealing enough for some credit market investors to begin extending duration.
High Yield
Headwinds for Leveraged Loans
February 26, 2018
Leveraged loans will have a harder time sustaining outperformance over high yield in the next few weeks.
Markets
Defensive Sectors and Munis Likely Outperformers
February 23, 2018
Equity and HY investors should benefit from over-weighting lower beta, less cyclical sectors
Markets
Worries About Bond Market Liquidity
February 14, 2018
Bloomberg – Credit Markets Are Stuck Playing Game of Dealers’ Choice Willingness to buy debt ‘clearly being tested,’ BofA Says In credit markets, it’s dealers’ choice — for now. That means credit...
Inflation, Central Banks Inducing Higher Volatility, Which is Normal
February 8, 2018
The volatility of U.S. equities rocketed higher in February but has thus far been mostly an isolated event away from U.S. Treasuries, foreign equities, and currencies
U.S. Treasury Yields Most Reliant on Inflation Since Pre-crisis
February 7, 2018
Inflation and wage growth are showing nearly their largest contributions to U.S. Treasury yields since the financial crisis.
Welcome Back, Volatility! Financial Conditions Primed to Tighten
February 5, 2018
Volatility-sensitive equity strategies are suffering in the wake of heightened inflation fears and a pulling in of rate hike expectations.
Curve and Inflation Expectations are Dictating Central Bank Policy
February 1, 2018
The Federal Reserve is ending Yellen's term with a hawkish bias, but also a lack of confidence in their forecasts for inflation and wage growth.
The Tide is Turning for Relationships Between Central Banks,...
January 29, 2018
Bloomberg – Don’t Bet Against the Fed’s Rate Forecast The central bank is likely to stick to three hikes in 2018. In short, don’t yet bet against the Fed’s 2018 rate forecast from either side. The current...