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Distress in Argentina is the latest issue dragging down emerging market performance in Latin America. Resilient economic growth and stable ETF flows may help some LatAm sovereigns outperform.
We are not getting excited about U.S. 10-year yields hitting 3.0%. Slowing economic growth will likely keep sovereign yields from racing higher, even if inflation begins to percolate. Concerted global economic growth has ended with data changes...
Dollar strength and rising Treasury yields are pressuring emerging market currencies tied to the carry trade. A unique advantage amid rising China / U.S. trade tensions and superior regional growth favor Brazil and Latin American over southeast Asian...
Concerted economic growth is threatening to end with data misses now a global concern. We have a line in the sand at 60% of economies growing above one-year averages. A drop below (currently 67%) would sustain higher volatility and produce larger...
Stable Treasury yields and improving risk appetite have seen U.S. credit investors begin to boost exposure again.
Financial markets are unfortunately suffering from a circular reference due to group-think and herd mentality. We use the information and ideas from 'the group' as a heuristic to form our own opinions. The world has become exponentially more...
Powell and gang are expected to have muted responses to financial market turmoil, unlike their recent brethren. The rise of inflation as the Federal Reserve's main focus over financial stability is a very important development, implying the 'Fed put'...
Bill issuance and repatriation are offering a potentially short-term boost to the Libor / OIS spread. The onus going forward will be on inflation rebounding and economic growth remaining stable to keep the Federal Reserve from driving the target rate...
Originally posted on December 27, 2017. Sign up for a free trial at the bottom of this page to read our current research. Summary In this webcast, we look at the poor productivity results in the United States and over ideas for why...
Originally posted on February 14, 2018. Sign up for a free trial at the bottom of this page to read our current research. Bloomberg – Credit Markets Are Stuck Playing Game of Dealers’ Choice Willingness to buy debt ‘clearly being...
Transitions to data misses and below-average data changes have historically been most prone to higher risk asset volatility and drawdowns. Slowing growth would pose a major problem for central banks like the ECB and BoJ contemplating an end to...
Our estimates for the reversal rate (or point of pain) resides near 150 bps, indicating additional hikes will continue to tighten financial conditions and hamper the Federal Reserve's ability to fulfill hopes for at least three hikes in 2018.