Inflation Threat at a Post-crisis High
January 26, 2018
Bubbles are increasingly floating to the surface indicating an awakening of a beast not seen in over a decade.
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U.S. and German 2y10y Spreads Look Ready to Converge
January 22, 2018
Bloomberg – Wage Growth Is Coming. Those Profits Can’t Last Employers report that replacing a departed worker is expensive — a red flag that the workforce is widely underpaid. One of the big economic questions for 2018 is...
Dollar Falls Back to September Lows
January 16, 2018
The weaker dollar has been a boon for emerging market equities, especially those in the healthcare, materials, financials and energy industries.
Earnings Update
January 16, 2018
View PDF Comment Last week (webcast, conference call) we noted that Q4 earnings expectations are very high. Through Friday only 26 of the S&P companies have reported, so it is still early days in the earnings season. The chart below...
T-Bills Show Little Concern Over Government Shutdown Threat
January 16, 2018
The New York Times – As Shutdown Talk Rises, Trump’s Immigration Words Pose Risks for Both Parties President Trump’s incendiary words about immigration have dampened the prospects that a broad spending and immigration deal can be...
Cryptocurrencies Take A Hit
January 16, 2018
The Wall Street Journal – Uproar as South Korea Plans Cryptocurrency Crackdown Government attempts to tighten control over cryptocurrency trading are sparking a fierce public backlash in South Korea. A petition on the official website of South...
Barron’s Roundtable Is Bullish
January 16, 2018
Barron’s – Bright Outlook for the Economy and Stocks The members of Barron’s 2018 Roundtable arrived at our annual gathering in a jolly mood. And why not? U.S. stocks returned an impressive 20% last year, and are off to...
The Rally In Crude Oil
January 16, 2018
The Wall Street Journal – Five Potential Risks to the Oil Rally As sentiment on oil has turned positive, hedge funds and other speculative investors have amassed a record number of long positions—bullish bets on oil. If sentiment sours,...
CoT Webcasts for January 12, 2018
January 16, 2018
OPEN Commitment of Traders Analysis For January 12, 2018 On January 12, 2018, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released the Commitments of Traders (CoT) statistics for Tuesday, January 9, 2018. Click on the open button...
A Bond Bear Market?
January 16, 2018
Barron’s – This Bond Bear Market Doesn’t Look Too Fierce Investors may be rattled, but falling prices probably won’t stop them from buying new Treasuries. The bond bear market has finally arrived, according to Bill Gross. The...
Trump’s Approval Rating
January 16, 2018
The Wall Street Journal – Stock Market Roared During Donald Trump’s First Year, Boosted by Earnings and Tax Cut U.S. stock markets soared to records during President Donald Trump’s first year in office, benefiting from a mix of...
More On Low Volatility
January 16, 2018
The Financial Times – Gavyn Davies: Ultra low market volatility – friend or foe? A pre-eminent question for 2018 is whether these low volatility levels are reflecting excessive complacency (and possibly extreme leverage) among investors. A...