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Consumer searches (Google) indicate low anxiety, but deteriorating spending, credit, and business formation. Our nowcast for Q2 GDP resides at 3.12% year-over-year, below similar forecasts by the Atlanta and New York Fed.
Many are hoping the roll-back of the Volcker rule will provide the financial sector with a much-needed boost. It may have much wider implications.
Blame slowing global growth for still low U.S. Treasury term premium and real yields. The U.S. may be growing at a moderately strong rate, but economists and bond investors are still very hesitant to join the chorus of optimism found within nearly...
Emerging market equities will find no relief from the recent drop in Fed tightening expectations. Lael Brainard's remarks Thursday indicate the Fed is on track for 2-3 more rate hikes this year.
Credit card delinquencies across the top 100 banks look poised to rise given languishing consumer search trends. We identify which states are more susceptible to rising interest rates and exposed to credit concerns.
A replay of our May 31, 2018 conference call.
The chart below shows Citigroup data change indices by region since 2015. These indices measure the relation of current releases to one-year averages. The Eurozone is leading a return to below=average growth with nearly all other regions...
The top panel in the chart below shows news trends of “uncertainty” for each central bank. We calculate percentiles of news trends, meaning higher toward 100% implies greater uncertainty. The bottom panel shows the average percentile...
In a March 4 Italian election, the anti-establishment/Euroskeptic parties did well. Two of them, Five Star and the League attempted to form a government and name Giuseppe Conte as the new Prime Minister. Over the weekend Italy’s...
Emerging markets are being rattled by a rising U.S. dollar and end to global synchronized growth. Equities in East Asia and Europe appear susceptible to further drawdowns. On the flip side, South American economic growth remains mostly rosy, favoring...
An end to global synchronized growth poses risks for lop-sided short positioning in long-end U.S. Treasuries. The Federal Reserve and markets are pricing in very little uncertainty, but news trends indicate uncertainty over central bank policies are...