Markets
Markets After Major Hurricanes
September 11, 2018
Major hurricanes are rarely market events. We look at the performance of 10-year yields, the S&P 500, TIPS breakeven spreads and property & casualty insurers.
Our Research
Sample Our Reports, Presentations, & Market Insights
Markets
Checking In On Seasonality As September Approaches
August 29, 2018
We have always warned against placing too much emphasis on seasonal adages such as “Sell in May and go away.” However, the month of September tends to be a quirky month for many assets on a seasonal basis and is worth examination.
Markets
A Brief History of Equity Mutual Funds
August 20, 2018
A Look at Nearly 65 Years of Mutual Funds Flows All the charts below show the following series: Red line, log-scale of the S&P 500 Blue bars, rolling 12-month sum of all flows into open-ended mutual funds Green bars – total assets The...
Markets
Monetary Policy Uncertainty Awakes, EM Slow-down a Concern
August 10, 2018
Emerging market economic growth has slowed to a point unfavorable for emerging market currencies and favorable for the U.S. dollar. Monetary policy uncertainty should also rise in this environment.
Markets
What Replaces ETFs? Subscribing to Stock Lists?
August 10, 2018
While everyone is obsessing about ETFs consuming the financial industry, and now at zero fees to boot, quietly a new disruptive force may be coming ... abandoning the fund structure altogether in favor of "subscribing" to stock lists, made possible...
Markets
Ultra-low Asset Class Returns, Awaiting a Volatility Revival
August 9, 2018
Asset allocators are facing an ultra-low return environment aided by a lack of economic surprises and ultra-low volatility in inflation expectations. We are closely watching inflation swap cap/floor ratios to signal a volatility revival.
Markets
Vacation Planning, a Leading Economic Indicator
August 8, 2018
The consumer services industry is poised to out-perform in the months ahead. We dig into small and big-ticket vacation plans of consumers to explain wage growth and central bank tightening expectations.
Markets
Leveraged Loans are Back in Style
August 7, 2018
A renewed appetite for risky corporate bond exposure has investors pouring into leveraged loans. They are unlikely to outperform high yield bonds unless Treasury yields break free from range-bound conditions.
Markets
Where’s the Diversification Opportunity? Maybe Nowhere
August 6, 2018
Investors are unprepared for market shocks given a lack of negative correlated returns or volatility across major asset classes.
Markets
Equity and UST Volatility Re-align, Causing Headaches for Asset...
July 27, 2018
Risks behind equities and sovereigns have reconnected, making the lives of asset allocators that much more difficult. Unexpected events have potential to damage nearly all asset classes in a similar fashion. Our belief is investors are aligning...
Markets
What’s Great for Technology Isn’t So Great for the Rest
July 26, 2018
Technology continuing to gobble up productivity and profit margin gains remains a central reason for low U.S. Treasury term premiums. Additionally, the yield curve is more apt to invert sooner than past historical instances given this weight on...
Markets
U.S. High Yield – Waiting for the Trifecta
July 25, 2018
Correctly timing a credit and coinciding stock market blow-up is essentially an impossibility. We do see indicators beginning to flash red, but the traditional cycle between high yield OAS versus the yield curve has yet to fully play out....