Markets
Declining Interest in Borrowing a Threat to Growth, U.S. Dollar
July 25, 2018
The accelerating decline in search interest for borrowing and banking is a potential threat to the pace of economic growth in the U.S.
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Markets
U.S. Real and Nominal Yield Curves Bound to Converge
July 24, 2018
The U.S. real yield curve has inverted, but is expected to converge (i.e. steepen) back in line with the nominal. Short-end real yields will be weighed down by the likely weakening in flexible prices. On the flip side, longer-end yields will remain...
Markets
Ruh-roh, Market Risks are Realigning with U.S. Treasury Volatility
July 23, 2018
Risks across asset classes are again aligning with U.S. Treasury volatility, meaning diversification will be difficult heading into the fall of 2018. The ECB, not recent talk of tightening by the BoJ, remains the world's most influential player. We...
Markets
Home Improvement Thriving as Housing Market Cools
July 23, 2018
A cool housing market and hot temperatures are driving outperformance for home improvement retailers.
Weekly Digest
Weekly Digest For July 9 – July 13
July 14, 2018
Our top posts from the last week.
Markets
Real Yields Trapped by Languishing Productivity and Wage Growth
June 13, 2018
Real yields, term premium, and implied volatility have little reason to appreciably rise until this conundrum of low productivity and wage growth is solved. U.S. 10-year real yields are up against range highs in place since September, which we...
Currencies
U.S. Dollar Outlook Improving
June 13, 2018
The outlook for the U.S. dollar against developed market peers is mixed, but we see upside against the euro and yen.
Markets
Wage Growth MIA, Blame Technology
June 12, 2018
Small business surveys for compensation are at all-time highs, but real wage growth has failed to follow through. Technology is the latent factor anchoring core inflation and wages. The more profit margin improvements are eaten up by technology, the...
Central Banks
Strong Balance Sheets Won’t Save You
June 12, 2018
Strong balance sheet stocks won't save your portfolio if financial conditions in the U.S. continue to tighten. Past tightening in financial conditions has dented performance across equities and credit markets.
Jim's View
Jim’s View: The Stock Market’s Message x-FAANMG
June 12, 2018
The six FAANMG stocks account for virtually all the gains in the S&P 500 this year. The returns of the other 494 stocks are consistent with signs of a moderating economy.
Financial News
What We’re Reading
June 12, 2018
Today's topics include a preview of the FOMC meeting, emerging markets, political risk, the cost of indexing, Chinese bond defaults and diverging policies in the U.S. and EU.