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A renewed appetite for risky corporate bond exposure has investors pouring into leveraged loans. They are unlikely to outperform high yield bonds unless Treasury yields break free from range-bound conditions.
Investors are unprepared for market shocks given a lack of negative correlated returns or volatility across major asset classes.
Risks behind equities and sovereigns have reconnected, making the lives of asset allocators that much more difficult. Unexpected events have potential to damage nearly all asset classes in a similar fashion. Our belief is investors are aligning...
Technology continuing to gobble up productivity and profit margin gains remains a central reason for low U.S. Treasury term premiums. Additionally, the yield curve is more apt to invert sooner than past historical instances given this weight on...
Correctly timing a credit and coinciding stock market blow-up is essentially an impossibility. We do see indicators beginning to flash red, but the traditional cycle between high yield OAS versus the yield curve has yet to fully play out....
The accelerating decline in search interest for borrowing and banking is a potential threat to the pace of economic growth in the U.S.
The U.S. real yield curve has inverted, but is expected to converge (i.e. steepen) back in line with the nominal. Short-end real yields will be weighed down by the likely weakening in flexible prices. On the flip side, longer-end yields will remain...
Risks across asset classes are again aligning with U.S. Treasury volatility, meaning diversification will be difficult heading into the fall of 2018. The ECB, not recent talk of tightening by the BoJ, remains the world's most influential player. We...
A cool housing market and hot temperatures are driving outperformance for home improvement retailers.
Our top posts from the last week.
Real yields, term premium, and implied volatility have little reason to appreciably rise until this conundrum of low productivity and wage growth is solved. U.S. 10-year real yields are up against range highs in place since September, which we...
The outlook for the U.S. dollar against developed market peers is mixed, but we see upside against the euro and yen.