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Will Emerging Market and Developed Market Real Yields Converge?

August 24, 2017

Financial Times – Charts that Matter – Real Benefits Local currency government debt has delivered year-to-date total returns of 12.7 per cent, according to the JPMorgan EM government bond index, making it one of the best-performing asset classes. Real yields are the key to understanding why, according to Diana Kiluta Amoa, a senior portfolio manager at… Continue reading Will Emerging Market and Developed Market Real Yields Converge?

Newsclips

Political Rhetoric Picks Up On The Debt Ceiling

August 24, 2017

Bloomberg – Trump Shutdown Threat Complicates Congress’s Debt Ceiling Plans President Donald Trump’s threats to shut down the government in October over border wall funding triggered concerns on Capitol Hill and could complicate Congress’s job of raising the debt ceiling. Congress needs to pass a spending measure to keep the government open by Sept. 30… Continue reading Political Rhetoric Picks Up On The Debt Ceiling

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Newsclips

Discussing Draghi’s Jackson Hole Speech

August 24, 2017

  Comment Jim Bianco was on Bloomberg TV this morning discussing the markets.  In the segment above, he discussed Draghi’s upcoming Jackson Hole speech.

Newsclips

A Look Back At The Size Of Banks Post-Crisis

August 24, 2017

The Financial Times – What happened to the ‘too big to fail’ banks? One of the lessons of the crisis that began in 2007 was that banks proved “too big to fail”. Fears of systemic collapse pushed governments into bailing out hundreds of financial institutions around the world. So it is ironic that the world’s… Continue reading A Look Back At The Size Of Banks Post-Crisis

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Newsclips

The Return Of CDS

August 24, 2017

The Financial Times – Investors pour back into crisis-era credit product Hedge funds are embracing an esoteric credit product widely blamed for exacerbating the financial crisis a decade ago, as low volatility and near record prices for corporate debt tempt them into riskier areas to seek higher returns. The market for “bespoke tranches” — bundles… Continue reading The Return Of CDS

Newsclips

World Growth

August 24, 2017

The Wall Street Journal – Global Economies Grow in Sync For the first time in a decade, the world’s major economies are growing in sync, a result of lingering low-interest-rate stimulus from central banks and the gradual fading of crises that over years ricocheted from the U.S. to Greece, Brazil and beyond. All 45 countries tracked… Continue reading World Growth

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Newsclips

Growth vs. Value

August 24, 2017

MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Growth May Keep Trouncing Value The recent dominance of growth stocks over value stocks is a sign that investors no longer expect Washington to do anything substantive to give the economy a boost. Besides policy considerations, though, there are technical reasons that suggest growth stocks remain in the catbird seat. Growth’s… Continue reading Growth vs. Value

Newsclips

Remember When Stocks Would Sometimes Advance By 1% In A Day?

August 24, 2017

MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Stocks Are Crawling, Not Jumping, to New Records U.S. stocks remain near their all-time highs even with some recent setbacks. Just don’t thank big one-day moves for that. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hasn’t closed up 1% or more since April 25, which was 83 trading sessions ago. If it fails… Continue reading Remember When Stocks Would Sometimes Advance By 1% In A Day?

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Newsclips

Cartoons

August 24, 2017

None Today

Charts of the Week

Citi Surprise Index

August 23, 2017

The Citi Surprise Index (green line, top panel) is the difference of the Expectations Index or economist consensus (orange line, bottom panel) and the Data Change Index or actual results (blue line, bottom panel).  In all these measures numbers above 0 mean expansion, below 0 means contraction.  They are measured relative to their levels a year… Continue reading Citi Surprise Index

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Charts of the Week

Measuring Trump

August 23, 2017

Two polling services measure Trump’s approval rating on a daily basis, Rasmussen and Gallup. Both are three-day tracking polls meaning the measure his approval rating over the previous three days with about one-third of their sample coming each day.  In total, they have about 1,500 respondents for a typical three-day period. Note that Rasmussen is consistently higher… Continue reading Measuring Trump

Charts of the Week

Measuring Political Risk

August 23, 2017

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) measures political risk for 132 countries.  It is updated quarterly through June 30, 2017. The chart below shows the 10 highest risk countries, or the highest political risk score.  The usual suspects are on the list along with Britain.   While not underestimating the risks inherent with Brexit, is Britain seriously a higher political… Continue reading Measuring Political Risk