Bloomberg View – Finding the Root Cause of Recessions Two things bear most of the blame: external shocks and economic volatility. The U.S. managed to avoid recession after the financial crisis, but Japan has succumbed to three contractions since 2009. Economic volatility is a key reason for this divergence, and that tells us a great deal… Continue reading What Causes A Recession?
Barron’s – Bracing for the Aging Bull Market’s Last Hurrah The Leuthold Group’s Doug Ramsey sees a stock pullback soon, then one more up leg by the end of 2017, followed by the bull’s death in 2018. We checked in with Ramsey about the outlook for this elevated market. Ramsey believes that a short-term downturn is… Continue reading Timing The Death Of The Bull Market
The Financial Times – Low rates benefited investors more than ordinary Americans One of the great ironies of the 10 years following the financial crisis is the way in which low interest rate monetary policy — which was designed to get Main Street USA back up and running and to help people buy homes and… Continue reading Who Benefits From QE
Noahpinion Blog – The Market Power Story So, there’s this story going around the econosphere, which says that the economy is being throttled by market power. I’ve sort of bought into this story. It certainly seems to be getting a lot of attention from top economists. Autor, Dorn, Katz, Patterson and van Reenen have blamed industrial concentration for… Continue reading Market Concentration Caused by Tech Likely Driving Down Inflation
The Financial Times – Amazon fires opening shot in feared Whole Foods price war Amazon sent tremors through the supermarket sector on Thursday after it said it will begin cutting prices on avocados, bananas and other products sold at Whole Foods, as soon as its acquisition is completed on Monday. Offering the first glimpse into… Continue reading Amazon’s Effect On Inflation & The Fed
Wall Street Journal – Dollar Edges Higher Ahead of Jackson Hole Conference Investors are awaiting speeches from Fed’s Janet Yellen and ECB’s Mario Draghi Central bank officials including U.S. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi are scheduled to speak Friday at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference. Analysts don’t expect… Continue reading Dollar Outlook Still Bullish
Bloomberg – Mohamed El-Erian: Debt Ceiling Fight Is a Damaging Distraction The debt ceiling is attracting a lot more attention, especially after President Donald Trump labeled it a “mess” on Wednesday amid growing tensions within the Republican Party. We should expect the rhetoric to get even more heated in the days and weeks ahead. It… Continue reading While Default Is Unlikely, Here Are Some Other Potential Consequences Of The Debt Ceiling Debate
MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Anxiety Creeping In? It’s Rare for Gold and Stocks to All Be Up This Much It’s unusual for a safe haven like gold to be doing so well when stock markets also keep rallying like they have in 2017. Gold is up 12% this year through Wednesday, while the Dow Jones Industrial… Continue reading A Rare Instance When Gold & Stocks Are Both Up
The Wall Street Journal – Why Policy Easing—Not Tightening—Tops Agenda for Some Central Banks The number of emerging-market central banks that lowered interest rates topped the number raising rates for the fourth month in a row in July, according to Capital Economics. That trend, largely driven by Latin American countries such as Brazil, is spreading… Continue reading Some Central Banks Are Still Cutting Rates
Bloomberg – Bond Routs, Stock Surges: Jackson Hole Can Be Messy for Markets While headliners including Fed Chair Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi are not expected to offer up new policy this year, and scuttlebutt suggests the meeting will be a dud, some investors aren’t taking any chances. They’re positioning for surprises that… Continue reading A Trip Down Memory Lane: Jackson Hole Edition
August 24th, 1857 – Panic of 1857 begins, setting off one of the most severe economic crises in United States history.