Charts
Bring On Quantitative Tightening, But Hold the Hikes Please
August 23, 2017
The total number of implied hikes by the FOMC, ECB, and BOE for the next twelve months is near the lowest since the financial crisis at 2.76.
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ECB Next to Join the Chorus of Tightening Central Banks?
August 23, 2017
Citigroup economic data change indices measure realized economic data in relation to one-year averages.
Charts of the Week
Stock Sector Returns Since The Election
August 23, 2017
As the chart below shows, the stock market has had great returns since election day. One of the best-performing sectors since the election has been financials. Hopes of reduced regulation (Dodd/Frank) and higher interest rates (Fed hikes) are driving these returns. Much like the financial sector above, the information technology… Continue reading Stock Sector Returns Since The Election
Charts of the Week
Bond Returns Since The Election
August 23, 2017
The Bloomberg (Barclays) Treasury index is only down -0.23% since the election after falling nearly 4% in the immediate weeks after the election. The Bloomberg (Barclays) high yield index is up 7.32% since the election. The Bloomberg broad investment grade index is up 2.72% since the election. … Continue reading Bond Returns Since The Election
Charts of the Week
Commodity Returns Since The Election
August 23, 2017
As the chart below shows, commodities returns as a group have been flat since election day. The Industrial metals sub-group has been the best performing commodity group since the election, returning 21.41% as a group since the election. While the softs sub-group is down -29.55% as a group since election day. … Continue reading Commodity Returns Since The Election
Charts of the Week
Lowflation Around The Globe
August 23, 2017
Earlier today Mohamed El-Erian penned a piece detailing how central banks have had a difficult time making decisions due to low inflation across the globe. The static image below highlights some of the major countries’/regions’ inflation rates. While 2% inflation seems to be a common target, only the UK has experienced inflation above this level… Continue reading Lowflation Around The Globe
Charts of the Week
An Update On Euro Sentiment
August 23, 2017
Consensus Inc. conducts a weekly survey of over 100 futures traders and investment newsletter writers. They simply ask participants whether or not they would describe themselves as bullish on a number of markets. In the week ending August 18, 75% of participants said they were bullish on the euro. The last time this group was… Continue reading An Update On Euro Sentiment
Charts of the Week
Interest Rates Since The Election
August 23, 2017
Since the election, the short end of the yield curve has marched steadily higher. If the interactive chart below is changed to the 10-year or 30-year Treasury, however, one will see yields only marched higher for roughly a month after the election. Since then, yields on the longer end of the curve have been in… Continue reading Interest Rates Since The Election
Newsclips
Rate Hike Expectations Haven’t Been This Muted Since Prior to the Taper Tantrum
August 23, 2017
Bloomberg – Bond Market’s Golden Trade Endures as Looming Risk Spurs Hedgers Inflation stuck below Fed’s target level caps yields Years into what may be the most-hated government-bond rally in history, the challenge for traders is that they keep losing if they’re not in it. The phenomenon is fostering the “golden” trade, as Societe Generale strategists call… Continue reading Rate Hike Expectations Haven’t Been This Muted Since Prior to the Taper Tantrum
Newsclips
Short Volatility ETF Buyers Are Holding On
August 23, 2017
Barrons – ETF Flopper: The VIX Goes Low VIX exchange-traded products fell more than 7%. Popular VIX products, such as the $1 billion iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures, which tracks VIX futures a month out, buys more expensive, longer-dated contracts and sells cheaper, shorter ones as they expire, effectively buying high and selling low. “They… Continue reading Short Volatility ETF Buyers Are Holding On
Newsclips
Frozen By Lowflation
August 23, 2017
Bloomberg – Mohamed El-Erian: The Lowflation Demon That Vexes Central Banks Persistently low inflation, or “lowflation,” is vexing lots of people. According to the recent minutes of policy meetings of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, central banks on both sides of the Atlantic have been trying to identify the causes — but… Continue reading Frozen By Lowflation
Newsclips
Betting Against Small Cap Stocks
August 23, 2017
MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Big Bets Against Small Caps Investors haven’t been this skeptical of small-cap stocks in a year and a half. Speculators have increased their bearish bets on the small-cap Russell 2000 index in eight of the last nine weeks, according to Bespoke Investment Group’s analysis of the weekly Commitment of Traders report.… Continue reading Betting Against Small Cap Stocks