Charts of the Week
The Fed’s Footprint in the Bond Market
April 18, 2025
How big are the Fed's holdings of bonds, notes, bills, TIPS, MBS, agencies, and FRNs in relation the outstanding market?
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A Long-Term Look at Gold
April 18, 2025
A long-term look at gold
Charts of the Week
Weekly Research Recap
April 18, 2025
Some interesting charts from our recent posts
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
April 17, 2025
Today's topics include what's going on with yields?, Japan trade deal could be the first domino, when will tariffs begin to hurt the economy?, Powell's rock & hard place scenario getting tighter, Fedspeak, Fed independence, hard data vs. soft data, the low volatility period has ended, an isolation strategy, deciphering what foreigners are doing in the treasury market, and investment grade issuance has been slow in 2025
Newsclips
Cartoons
April 17, 2025
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
April 16, 2025
Today's topics include retail traders continue buying the dip, Japan is first in line, drawing comparisons between Liberation Day & the 1971 end of Bretton Woods, foreign currency performance versus the dollar, developing a plan to hike taxes for $1m+ earners, China's Q1 growth strong given stimulus, Is the end goal turning all eyes to China?, where is the Fed's "sacrifice ratio?", and war on rare earths
Newsclips
Cartoons
April 16, 2025
Newsclips
What Happened to the Fed Put?
April 15, 2025
For years, markets assumed the Fed would "react" to signs of weakening growth by aggressively cutting rates—the Fed Put. However, fear of tariff-driven inflation is preventing the Fed from acting on weakening growth.
Newsclips
Q1 2025 Earnings Update: Guidance & Expectations Sour
April 15, 2025
Q1 2025 earnings season began last week. Growth is expected to be well below recent quarters. Both guidance and analyst revisions indicate a souring earnings outlook.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
April 15, 2025
Today's topics include the Fed's measure of inflation expectations ticks higher, peak stock market bearishness in the latest BofA survey, all this uncertainty pushes term premium to highest since 2014, gold inventories' effect on GDPnow, the SF Fed has an eye on the labor market, Bessent teases increased buybacks for off-the-run securities, how do stocks respond to a death cross?, and zero-day options & intraday volatility
Newsclips
Cartoons
April 15, 2025
Media & Communications
Jim Bianco on the Schwab Network: Bonds “Center of the Universe,” Investors Will Want to Stock Pick
April 14, 2025
When it comes to recent price action, Jim Bianco points to bonds as the driving force. He looks at the correlation between stocks and bonds to explain why these market moves occurred. He doesn't expect the broader indices to perform as exceptionally as they did in the past and urges investors to watch for individual stocks and sector themes.