Q1 2025 earnings season has begun. Growth is expected to be well below that of recent quarters, but expectations seem to have bottomed. Both guidance and analysts' revisions indicate a souring earnings outlook.
Today's topics include Trump vs. the Fed, the concept of a risk-free bond, U.S. stocks come back to earth relative to foreign stocks, risk-off flows gain steam, an eye on "other" Fed deposits, the Dow's worst April returns since 1932, stock market volatility, and oil supply & demand
The economy is currently performing well according to hard data. However, soft or survey data suggests it will significantly decline in the next 90 days or so. Will it?
The Commitments of Traders report allows investors to gauge position changes for different groups of traders/investors.
Today's topics include making the case for buying the dip, looking at the prospect of rate cuts, global central banks are in a tough position, bond fund outflows, Fedspeak, earnings revisions point to poor outlook, profiling the current state of the housing market, discussing deregulating wall street, and Trump V. Powell
Markets moved in massive ways after Trump's tariff announcement. Financial conditions tightened quickly while Treasury market liquidity remained ample.
As of Q4 2024, roughly 54% of homeowners with a mortgage still had a rate under 4%.
A comparison of the assets and liabilities of the wealthiest Americans versus the rest of the country
We believe Trump's approval rating is the second most important factor, after the bond market, in changing his economic agenda. Currently, an approval rating of 46% is not low enough to prompt a change.
Crypto fell alongside most risk assets since the beginning of the month, but Bitcoin continues to account for a larger portion of the universe.