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June 5, 2025
Today's topics include ADP's track record, the Fed updates its timeline for returning to profitability, the bond market's return to normalcy, currency-hedged bond returns, the trade truce & economic data, central banks' gold purchases, options traders don't expect the payrolls report to make waves, and retirement savings
The recovery in U.S. markets since Liberation Day has been quite impressive across many asset classes and strategies. How far have we come since nearing bear market territory?
Today's topics include The OECD's economic outlook, unanchored inflation expectations, what's next for the big beautiful bill?, trading tariff volatility, Larry Fink on globalization, Japan's 10-year auction sees solid demand, the retail crowd loves 0DTE options, what would the U.S. give up if it lost reserve currency status?, and Fannie/Freddie.
Jim Bianco joins the Schwab Network to discuss Tariffs/Trade Deals, Fed Rate Cuts, the 4-5-6 Market with Nicole Petallides.
The Commitments of Traders report allows investors to gauge position changes for different groups of traders/investors.
Gold has trended higher this year on inflation concerns. The dollar has depreciated and U.S. stocks have lagged as investors remain concerned about the consequences of the trade war.
Today's topics include the economy & tariffs, thoughts on the dollar, buyers strike for 30-year Treasuries?, quant driven strategies continue to grow, characterizing the 2025 equity market, El-Erian on the fed's difficult position, summer vacation travel, eyes on more JGB auctions this week, Warsh criticizes the Fed for not doing more on debt, and concentration risk in private credit
Long-term yields are loosely tied to nominal GDP growth. Nominal means real growth plus inflation. Indeed, we find that long-term bond yields should and do approximate nominal GDP growth.